Startups – Numbers By Phase

Aaron Patzer gave a talk @ a JuicePitcher event about seven days back around the numbers Mint saw by phase prior to its buyout.

09/2007. Mint wins $50k @ TechCrunch50 (startup competition)

· Why it caught my eye Mint was just bought by Quicken for $170M so hearing the CEO of Mint talk about the details of his 3 years up to that is bound to have some tidbits. · Would I recommend you watch it?: Sure. It’s not too long (20 minutes) and the stats he gives on expenses by phase out are not typically available. You can see some of them in the notes below. · Most Notable Point: Typically takes a company, that is going to be successful long term, ~ 5 years to reach $50M in revenue. Took him about 3-4. · Nuance You Might Overlook: Business people don’t play a huge role in the garage phase (building out the prototype). Can lead to tension between founders if one feels they are doing all the work.

Hope it helps. Raw notes below.

*** START OF RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING ***

• 0:2.390 – Intro

……..○ http://vimeo.com/6960507

……..○ Mint CEO – Aaron Patzer on Startups

……..○ Sold Mint for $170M cash to Quicken

• 1:14.791 – Start

……..○ Talk is on accounting

……..○ What you should pay per stage, what you need to go to the next stage

• 2:23.734 – Phases by equity

……..○ Garage Phase < $100k

……..○ Seed < $1M

……..○ Funded > $1M

• 3:3.371 – Overview of him

……..○ EE / Com Sci

• 4:11.837 – Garage Stage Expenses

……..○ Goal is prototype

……..○ No revenue

……..○ Value = $500k per engineer, -$250k per business plan

……..○ Engineers that build for first six months, business raise funds/research (relatively idle)

……..○ 5:54.45 – actual expenses

…………….§ $50k of his $

…………….§ First hires eng -30-50k, 2% equity … after dilution worth a lot, 2nd engineer 1.5%

…………….§ Office – $400/cube/monht

…………….§ Tech – $10k

……..○ Raise seed in 9 months

……..○ Need a technical partner, 50% if there from start

……..○ 3-5 months in and don’t have … 10%, CEO is 20%, VP 5-10%

……..○ Legal – Defer legal to 1st round … 0.5% to 0.75%

……..○ Total – ~ $150k

• 9:24.570 – Seed Launch

……..○ 100-1000 users, usable but not polished

……..○ Shows original design

……..○ 5-6 staff, 1 UI focus, 3-4 eng, 1 biz generalist (marketing, sales, books, recruiting, everything but tech)

……..○ $750k raised by angels

……..○ His salary $50k/year

……..○ VP Engineer – $180k/year … to $90k w/ 4% of company

……..○ Salaries – $450k, Overhead $100k, Legal $50k,

……..○ Total burn – $600k

……..○ Legal costs .. $750k costs 35k + legal counsel … 30-40k … to get seed funds … so $690 after fees

……..○ 12:30.964 – Revenue Projections

…………….§ Will be made up

…………….§ Average takes 6-7 years to get to $50M

…………….§ Biggest key is market opp and $/transaction

……..○ 13:45.653 – Define Market

…………….§ Talk about competitors

…………….§ Goal revenue per user per year … 3 years back … right on (+/- 30% but not 10x off)

……..○ 15:13.339 – Referrals & Lead Gen

…………….§ User Base * Rev/user/year = Opps

• 15:43.583 – Funding for Launch / Lead

……..○ Hidden expenses (patents, trademarks, contracts, etc)

……..○ $400/month for salary

……..○ One time expenses (patent, finance legal, consultants, servers, etc … every month $150-200k)

……..○ Assume average people cost of $200k/year (about 30 people at this point)

……..○ Earn ~ $6M / year

• 17:28.519 – Build A Model for when to raise funding

……..○ COGs vs Revenue vs Opex

…………….§ Who is active customers, customer growth

……..○ $20k/employee/month is the spend per employee

• 19:3.192 – Exit (Aquired)

……..○ Not just the cash

……..○ Incredibly gratifying

……..○ Learning all the skills (marketing, sales, recruiting, mgmt, etc) – great skills regardless of win/lose

……..○ Create something from nothing is a great thing

……..○ Tracks $200M in flow, $60B in assets … tracked now in MINT

……..○ He is 28 years old

Farmville Is Bigger Than World of WarCraft? Really?

Kevin Rose (founder of Digg and WeFollow) gave a talk recently at FOWA. Link to actual discussion is http://vimeo.com/6905398.

· Why it caught my eye Viral traffic growth. An elusive beast. · Would I recommend you watch it?: Absolutely. His points, while summarized well by many are clarified by his examples. · Most Notable Point: Ego. Define your core use case and then design to fulfill user ego if possible. Does your app create sense of self worth? Value? For the user. · When should you fast forward? Q&A wasn’t notable. · What the audience didn’t hear: His point on marketing by approaching jr. bloggers with your startup story intriguing. Also, loved his example that Farmville (on Facebook) which I have played (thanks to my boys) and has more active users than World of WarCraft.

As always, for those amused here are my raw notes …

*** START OF RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING ***

………○ 10/6/2009, 9:42 AM

……………..§ Kevin – Intro

………○ 10/6/2009, 9:43 AM – EGO

……………..§ Doesn’t drive design … but should influence design you need for the business goal

……………..§ What emotional rewards

……………..§ What visible rewards (badges, etc)

……………..§ Good Examples

……………………..□ 10/6/2009, 9:45 AM Twitter

…………………………….® Followers – Celebrity as free endorser (New idea)

…………………………………….◊ Works due to simple friend model

…………………………………….◊ Becomes a social currency … more is better (bigger platform)

…………………………………….◊ False follower concept is reality

……………………..□ 10/6/2009, 9:48 AM Digg Leaderboard

…………………………….® Who has submitted the most stories … Top Digg poweruser goal

…………………………….® Permlink page … size of icon for submitter is larger and friending icon

………○ 10/6/2009, 9:50 AM – SIMPLICITY

……………..§ Overbuild features

……………..§ Just release something (do it really well) and see what users do with it .

……………..§ Constantly ask what to remove

………○ 10/6/2009, 9:51 AM – BUILD and RELEASE

……………..§ Don’t debate features

……………..§ Put it out there

……………..§ Build, release, analyze, repeat

………○ 10/6/2009, 9:52 AM – HACK THE PRESS

……………..§ Invite only systems

……………………..□ Press likes limited story (bloggers)

……………..§ Logged in user to see categories

……………..§ Talk to jr. bloggers (talk to the staff @ TechCrunch for example)

……………..§ Attend parties of events you can’t afford (i.e. Web 2.0 costs $3-4k) … so hit after parties . Have demo in hand

………○ 10/6/2009, 9:56 AM – START PODCAST

……………..§ It’s not about numbers here … core of your community looks for this

……………..§ Launch party, quarterly parties

………○ 10/6/2009, 9:58 AM – ADVISORS

……………..§ What technical issues are probable (scale, server, etc)

……………..§ Can be biz/dev or tech

……………..§ Stock compensation . Small % . Vests over course of years

………○ 10/6/2009, 9:59 AM – USERBASE TO SPREAD WORD

……………..§ Farmville – Facebook app … larger user base than WoW

……………………..□ Notes to you that your friends are helping you when you are away . Pull stagnate friends back in due to feeling of owing them (they help to get free points)

……………………..□ Rare blacksheep given away

……………..§ WeFollow – Enable people to tweet out a pre-built msg … with their keywords

……………………..□ 10/6/2009, 10:02 AM – Graph of user growth … spike with add of welcome splash with call to action to add to directory giving them data of adding themselves

………○ 10/6/2009, 10:02 AM – DOES YOUR PRODUCT ADD VALUE TO 3RD PARTY SITE

……………..§ Wall Street gives link to Digg on every page as it adds value to WSJ

………○ 10/6/2009, 10:03 AM – ANALYZE TRAFFIC

……………..§ Google Analytics

……………………..□ Top exit pages, paths

………○ 10/6/2009, 10:03 AM – LOOK AT BIG PICTURE

……………..§ Users contribute – Quality Content

……………..§ Traffic from content

……………..§ Traffic nets to buttons (digg reference)

………○ 10/6/2009, 10:04 AM – Q&A

……………..§ B2B Advice on viral design – Not much to say there

……………..§ 10/6/2009, 10:06 AM – Moonfruit promotion on twitter good/bad – They offered to give a macbook to someone that promotes their service. Shut down by twitter due to volume. Digg (us) focus on show people what they are going to send not a generic plug.

……………..§ Visibly punish (opposite of reward)? – No do not. Users don’t know always they are gaming. Many times people digg 500 stories but to them it’s a game. User onboarding can help less users going off the deep end. Focus them on positive tasks.

……………..§ 10/6/2009, 10:08 AM – Companies don’t pay for marketing / advertisting … does Digg pay for some? Digg has not paid for marketing. Focus on meetups and get togethers.

……………..§ 10/6/2009, 10:10 AM – Demographics of Digg? 95% male started. Expanded content w/ version 3. Will do more promotion at the vertical level (i.e. Rock climbing). 3000 follow knitting.

Judy Estrin (Author): The Four Keys of Innovation

Actually, Judy wrote a book titled “Close the Innovation Gap” but I was more taken by the four points she laid out as keys as they seemed so clear:

• Leadership
• Policy
• Culture
• Funding

I was impressed with her clarity of though on this subject.   This is no “Tim Ferris” marketing ploy1.  She did some hard research here and pulled out some very concise messages.

Details

Notable Points

Title/Link: Interview on “Close the Innovation Gap” Duration: ~35m Presenter: Judy Estrin Author Sits on Board of FedEx and Walt Disney (formerly Board member of Rockwell) Early researcher around protocols Various startups Recommend to Watch? Yes Strange, as I walked away I would of said ‘maybe’ but as I pondered what she said it moved to ‘yes’.   While not explosive, her points have staying power as you mull them over.

1. Leadership Around leadership, her point was how if the people who control the decisions to fund innovation don’t value it and understand why it stumbles we will continue to under fund it.  Case and point the US stance around innovation since 2000.  Respect for research and understanding the ecosystem it is a part of (research, development, application) is faltering.   See the next three points on why. 2. Policy Mostly she talked about Immigration here but examples of subsidies around clean energy that are occurring in Europe were also tossed around.   I recall a great TED talk that suggested a floor on gas prices that was higher than the cost of alternative fuels (to provide a stable market for R&D to target).   In addition she mentioned the locking away of federal research (stifles iterative innovation). 3. Culture Here she talked about children.   How under 5th grade there is little innovation into enabling children to tinker as we used to be able to do with our hands in the past. There are enablers (virtual CAD, etc) but we aren’t pushing that out and providing incentives to kids to grapple with those tools. 4. Funding Excellent point here.  How most of last eight years in US has shifted to short term returns.  Both for VC’s and Business R&D.  Innovation needs research for pure research sake that is tied to another ecosystem (development and application) that can pick pieces from our efforts around “learning for learning sake”.  If you focus on an outcome you only get incremental not disruptive (new concept) innovation.

So if you are in business, or responsible for an area of a business I would ponder what she has to say..

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

1-Side comment on Ferris, I continue to read aspects of his book and ponder.  He did have some notable insights as well … just too much marketing oil for me.

* START OF RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING **

• Judy Estrin Author
• 9/5/2008, 6:40 AM Start
• Author
………………○ serial entrepreneur, worked on protocol w/ Stanford, CTO Cisco for 2 years, PackageDesign,
………………○ Thinking about innovation on 2004
• Complex for a set of reasons
………………○ Incremental innovation
………………○ Disruptive
………………○ Disruptive but not breakthrough (ipod, not genetic engineering)
• Its an ecosystem
………………○ Research community – furthers understanding
………………○ Dev comm – builds
………………○ App comm – Applies
………………○ Google example – Algorithm –> Product –> Execution (innovated in all areas)
………………○ 9/5/2008, 6:45 AM Energy example
• 9/5/2008, 6:45 AM — Where are we (US)
………………○ Sits on board of FedEx and Walt Disney
………………○ Valley is more risk averse … as is large corporations … so incremental innovation focus
………………○ Talked to — Tech, Educators, Policy, Life Science, Etc
………………○ Found – – Policy problem
………………………………§ Innovation gap in last 8 years … over harvested in last 8 years
………………………………§ Most interesting things are based on disruptors that are 10-20 years old
………………………………§ Became more short term focused in the way funding worked … not funding lab work. After 2000 acute in % of spend. Respect for science. Listening to science.
………………………………§ Kids — not inspired to be science / tech
• 9/5/2008, 6:50 AM Kids
………………○ Not inspired to learn how things work
………………○ Bauer Comment – wouldn’t it be interesting to allow kids to virtually break down and assemble the pieces of things. Like CAD/CAM light.
………………○ Can’t tinker today
• 9/5/2008, 6:52 AM Can do
………………○ Virtual worlds
………………………………§ Bauer Comment – Amusing. She and I think about it
• 9/5/2008, 6:53 AM Education
………………○ US are more anti-immigrant
………………○ Lower class focus (like Mexico) to block
………………○ Harder for US Foreign Nationals to stay here (Israel)
………………○ Her response
………………………………§ Great upper ed
………………………………§ But policy of immigration got clamped down when we needed to expand
………………………………………………□ Bauer Comment – Ouch for the us nationals (supply and demand) in tech sector
………………………………§ Need to be able to: Risk, Be Open, Patience, Self Assess, Trust
………………………………§ Need a balance of the above … enough to be real …
………………………………§ Innovation is not zero sum … US vs China … no … but if US doesn’t innovate with them we are toast
………………………………§ Two things hurt innovation — Policy (immigration) and Classification of Federal Research
………………○ Google doesn’t share as much research
………………………………§ They help by open up aspects of their source
………………○ MSFT Research … give a lot of credit of becoming more open
• 9/5/2008, 6:55 What is the difference between research and Dev
………………○ Research about furthering understanding. No outcome. Applied research is constrained to a problem. Usage research with consideration of application.
………………○ Development is building something
………………○ Disruptive research is unclear … ie dustbuster came from moon program
………………○ Tendancy today is too much of “how is this used”,
………………○ 9/5/2008, 7:03 AM Solar Energy example …. Wants VC to have more patience
………………………………§ Bauer Comment – Patience will only occur with payback models they can see that are better odds or multiples than today.
………………………………§ Scoble points out market for energy in Europe
• 9/5/2008, 7:05 AM Leadership, Policy, Culture, Funding
………………○ Impacts to innovation
………………○ Same inside company and outside of company
………………………………§ Bauer Comment – Cockroach model enables innovation due to reducing financial requirements
• 9/5/2008, 7:07 AM Talk of Government Innovation
………………○ Afraid of government not google
………………○ Candidate runs on create change
………………○ Middle ground of government and free markets
………………○ Gov, Business, and Non-Profits need to address problems
………………○ Markets are too short term focused so they can’t solve this
………………………………§ Bauer Comment – Which is why floors on types of energy, as an example, are key to R&D
• 9/5/2008, 7:10 AM How people help
………………○ Create innovative environments
………………○ Think long term
………………○ Talk about longer term problems
………………○ Wrote book to escalate dialog around this
• 9/5/2008, 7:12 AM Solutions of Long Tail
………………○ Can’t procrastinate
………………○ Pick small battles that help … don’t try to win the war
………………………………§ Bauer Comment – Similar to startups, daily battles are the key … not the scoreboard on a given day.
• 9/5/2008, 7:13 AM Is there hope?
………………○ You can be fooled by the valley … they are just a part of the US innovation need
………………○ The rest of historical US isn’t holding line
………………○ However, there is hope

** END RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING **

Mike Agnich (Predictify): Wisdom IN the Crowd

When I watched this webcast around Predictify, I recalled a great scene in the movie Princess Bride where Vizzini, the criminal mastermind, loses a “battle of wits” to the Man In Black, the hero, when posed the life or death question:

Which cup is poisoned?

Vizzini’s dizzying reasoning (leading to his death) is a perfect example on why Wisdom of the Crowds (WotC) is becoming popular. With just our wetware to help us we tend to mess up in two primary ways:

• We don’t analyze all the possibilities
• We don’t weight the ones we do see properly

Vizzini’s deductive tailspin was a perfect example. About halfway through he mentions an angle that would lead him to the right answer … “you could have put the poison in your own goblet” … but then skips on to other options. A crowd of smart people might have helped him pause there and explore / weight that option better. Really it’s very similar to ‘Poll the Audience’ or ‘Phone a Friend’ (ala the game show Who Wants to be a Millionaire?). This webcast talks about a how Predictify, a WotC player, takes this problem solving style up a notch. So if you are curious on how your friends, the audience, and Regis Philbin could help your business … this webcast is for you.

Details

Notable Points

Title/Link: Using Crowds To Predict Outcomes Duration: ~30m Presenter: Mike Agnich CTO @ Zazzle (custom screen print store) before Predictify. 2000 Grad from Stanford. Recommend to Watch? Yes This one warms up about 15 minutes in to hint at new ways (to me) that WotC can be applied for business. For that alone its a worthy listen.

1. The Weakness in Wisdom of the Crowds? Niche Hard to get a crowd answer for a niche segment that doesn’t amuse the broad spectrum of consumers. However, Predictify begins to hint at solving this. 2. Switch To “Wisdom IN the Crowd” My words but Mike hints at this. In WotC solutions it is easy to lose sight of the right answer (ala Vizzini) due to the noise of all the possibilities. This is compounded by the fact that the crowd, like most crowds, is made up of people that do really good in some categories but horrible in others. The crowd might not have a clear (or right) answer in aggregate but the wisdom is IN there. You just have to find it. 3. If You Say “Crowd” … Shouldn’t You Think “Marketing”? This was the best point, I thought. To date people use WotC solutions to get perspective on problems. However, if you look at it from another viewpoint its a variant of social networks. People getting together doing what they like to do … debating questions of the day. Fighting to earn the reputation of being the next great Kreskin in their niche of the world. The companies that facilitate that process (soliciting, tracking predictions) get the power of continual relationship and subliminal messaging to those power customers. That is an excellent marketing angle no matter where you come from.

Read the detail scribble below for more aspects … segmentation of answers by demographic, branded pages on their servers, etc. Predictify is taking an exciting space and adding even more excitment.

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

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crowd sourcing, game, Mike Agnich, predictions, Web 2.0
• http://www.fastcompany.tv/video/using-crowds-predict-outcomes-predictify
• 6/12/2008, 6:33 AM
• Mike Agnich
• Web is old information … how to provide forward looking information
• Sports, Stocks, Pop , Business, Politics … Various questions studies
……………..○ Bauer Comment – So limited to questions that masses have opinions on
• Focus questions into style of asking measurable events
• Some people predict better
• Track who can predict better than others …
……………..○ Bauer Comment – more interesting, finding the kreskin(s) in the crowd
……………..○ They group / evolve people into bands of experience beginners, apprentices
• 6/12/2008, 6:39 AM
• MSFT Example
……………..○ Key is picking gem commentary from haystack
……………..○ Anonymous commentary
• How measure right answer.
……………..○ Market, Sportsline,
• 6/12/2008, 6:41 AM
• Incentive system
……………..○ Reputation building
……………..○ Competition (W/L record)
……………..○ Premium questions (paid for)
…………………………….§ Two types of questions – free and pay-for
…………………………….§ Pay-for pays for right answer
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment – Similar to that one company that presented @ TED
……………..○ 4 times as much $ if you are right
• ? Sponsorer Get Additional Data
……………..○ Demographics
……………..○ Level of historical accuracy
……………..○ Age, Gender
……………..○ Customer segmentation inline w/ marketing
• 6/12/2008, 6:44 AM
• Commentary by racial lines for politics
• Key is that the outlier answers fall away leaving the right answer
• 6/12/2008, 6:45 AM
• How big does the community need to be for good accuracy
……………..○ Depends on ? Style (statistics)
…………………………….§ Binary question (Y/N) is harder to lock in
……………………………………………□ Bauer Comment – Interesting, so Y/N isn’t really too telling as the guess noise creeps in
……………..○ 1000 I a good rule of thumb
• 6/12/2008, 6:46 AM
• Elections have helped w/ his demographics
……………..○ Age spread is good
……………..○ More Male than Female
……………..○ Questions on site is cerebral … so mature crowd
• 6/12/2008, 6:47 AM
• Linking to Facebook? To grow demographics?
……………..○ How expand / integrate to other social sites being reviewed
……………..○ Need open networks
• 6/12/2008, 6:48 AM
• Free service
• Mobile client?
……………..○ Bauer Comment – Not specifically answered
• Email contact types (them to users)
……………..○ Bauer Comment – Not a clear answer
• 6/12/2008, 6:49 AM
• Vegas Line … Bad Indicator
……………..○ Not saying what will happen …. Says what will make $
……………..○ Frame questions on not ‘who you want to win’ … rather … ‘who will win’ … try to separate person from the question … ‘what do you think will happen’
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment – so question style is key to elicit good stats … separation of personal bias … focus on attributes that drive the answer
• 6/12/2008, 6:51 AM
• Demo
……………..○ Image
……………..○
……………..○ High Level of comments … 2 comments per 3 logins
…………………………….§ Opportunity to think
……………..○ Example is one where Obama / Clinton debate will resolve
……………..○ Graph types
…………………………….§ Scatterplot
…………………………….§ Histogram
……………..○ Filter by types of predictor (their historical accuracy) … regraph
……………..○ Filter by demographic type
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment – real time rendering of graphing
……………..○ Free question … See level of expertise filter only
……………..○ Don’t talk about sponsor of ?’s (Scoble asked)
……………..○ Market research use … primary focus … consumer product companies … companies like Coke, Pepsi, Phizer, GM … those are the targets … companies trying to get people engaged to their brand online
……………..○ Engagement Advertising
…………………………….§ Move – Post trailer
…………………………….§ Sponsor … Don’t care about results … just trying to build brand
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment – Interesting. Instead of social network based competition … go for engagement marketing
…………………………….§ In pilot stage w/ a few companies on that angle
…………………………….§ 6/12/2008, 6:58 AM
…………………………….§ Deeper than just a poll question … allow broader answer and interaction with group responding … comments, filters, etc
……………..○ 6/12/2008, 6:59 AM
……………..○ Track friends and what they are predicting
……………..○ Widget for blogs sharing predictions
…………………………….§ They see a more compelling model
…………………………….§ Platform. 5 minutes. Create a branded page. Customize questions. Leaderboard. Etc.
……………………………………………□ Bauer Comment – Bad. UX wise people hit one page on a blog.
…………………………….§ They are working with Mashable to create a ‘question’ page on product launches … etc
…………………………….§ Scoble … wants to cross compare blogs
…………………………….§ Photoshop .. Put graphs next to each other
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Semantic Web (Spivack): Nova Lays Down 101 On Semantic

I bumped into this webcast from others referencing it as a ‘must watch’ from NextWeb 2008. So, while I had sworn off pondering semantics for awhile (too early for most clients) I decided I should check it out. I wasn’t disappointed. Nova Spivack (CEO of Twine) gave the best 101 on Semantic I have seen: Five approaches to add/infer semantic data How semantic enables JIT database models How semantic enables part of the “Web as an OS” dream Where we are now, where we are going Q&A and moreAs usual, the keys I saw are below plus my usual raw scribble I took while running/watching this.

Details Notable Points Title/Link: NextWeb Presentation Slides (Excellent clarity & flow) Duration: ~45m Presenter: Nova Spivack AI focus (I knew I liked him for a reason), Co-Founded Earthweb which created DICE.com Recommend to Watch? Yes Put aside that he and I both agree this is early adopter material … you need to watch this to begin to get your head around it. If what he is saying shakes out … the tooling to enable semantic frameworks around data is 2-3 years away from prime time. That is just a blink (especially if you have kids). 1. Queue the “Circle Of Life” Song … Web 3.0 Returns Us To The Backend via Semantic Tools He made some excellent points on the cyclical nature of development focus and how Web 2.0 is all about the UI. The next wave, however, will refocus us on the backend and the catalyst for that will be the value semantic structures can bring to businesses (he has some great slides on that). Primarily he pointed to how documents and data exploding on the web making algorithmic search models like Google begin to be inefficient. 2.Not AI … AS (as in Artificial Stupidity) Perhaps a joke only a AI major would appreciate. His point was that AI can’t solve complex riddles like deriving semantic data for existing stuff. It can help but it is more of tool for the human mind to apply … than a machine you can delegate this task to. 3. Smart Data … Dumb Software Another good word play. Here he was talking about how enriching data with semantics can enable the applications that consume it to become dumber about the specifics of data (relationships between it, what it means). Instead all of the application focus can be on how to dynamic leverage data that is presented to it based on its associated semantics. I think his venture Twine is something along that front.

I’m am going to ask to get an invitation to the beta of Twine. From that I hope to get a better sense of what he is seeing here.

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

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• 6/6/2008, 6:11 AM
• Radar Networks – CEO – Nova Spivack
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Product called Twine
• Excellent article hitting topics –
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/25/is-keyword-search-about-to-hit-its-breaking-point/
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ http://thenextweb.org/2008/04/03/nova-spivack-the-semantic-web-as-an-open-and-less-evil-web/
• 6/6/2008, 6:12 AM
• Overview
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Stuff = Nouns
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Connections = Verbs
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Social Graph is subset of Semantic Graph
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Improves collab, integration of data, personalization, etc
• 6/6/2008, 6:15 AM
• Web 3.0
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Coming 3rd Decade of Web (till in 2.0)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Focus enrich structure of web
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ File Server to Database
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – nice slide showing evolution by web ‘waves’ (1, 2, 3, etc)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Pendulum from front end focus to a back end focus
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ 3.0 backend … 4.0 back to front end based on improved backend
• 6/6/2008, 6:18 AM
• Failure of search as data on web increases
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – another referenced graph that is solid (on his blog)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Solutions
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1. Tagging
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2. Natural language search
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3. Semantic (goes into understanding meaning of natural search)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,a. Keyword search is capped out
• 6/6/2008, 6:19 AM
• Five approaches to add / infer from data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1. Tagging
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1) Bad due to inconsistency between public taggers
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,a) Bauer Comment – he talk about how large data set can analyze the tags and reach a common definition of tags from the crowd (UX card sorting in mass)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2. Statistical Approach
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1) Google
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3. Linguistic Approach
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1) Understand meaning of text … rules, grammar, etc … read the text systemically
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2) Great but high CPU, hard to scale, language dependancies
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4. Semantic web
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1) Set of standards (open) make the semantic web (W3)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2) Semantic technologies
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,a) Express, infer meaning of things
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3) Meta Data … put into the data that describes meaning of data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4) Does w/ open standards
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5) Problems — Hard to scale, who makes all this meta-data on existing content
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5. Artificial Intelligence
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1) Decades away … Cycorp in US … 15 years manually keying human knowledge
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2) Wikipedia – AI on top might do better keeping up w/ human consensus
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3) Huge in 4.0 …. But far away
• 6/6/2008, 6:24 AM
• How to compare add/infer data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Software smarter
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Data smarter
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ AI is both
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Semantic web is in the middle
• 6/6/2008, 6:26 AM
• Two paths
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Manual – RDF, L … too hard
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Top down – Automatically generating … from content .. More practical
• Twine
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Use RDF … top down
• Make a higher resolution web as each piece of data carries more information about it
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Types (person, city)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Relationship (like ‘lives in’)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Google is just pages / links
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – Key becomes normalizing, in effect, static content via verbs and nouns descriptions
• Bauer Comment – Between websites imply global nouns
• Smart data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Enables dumb software …. To become smart via the enriched data
• Applications evolve that read semantic data and are independent of vertical (health, etc)
• He wants to not use AI … use AS (Artificial Stupidity)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – good word play … helps clarify role of machine in complex decision chain
• 6/6/2008, 6:31 AM
• JIT in time data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Semantic web pulls in just when needed
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Problem in past way communicating schema (i.e. XML, DDL)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Semantic web … does it via an entology … a page on web … makes sense of data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – sounds like XML to me
• 6/6/2008, 6:33 AM
• Making the web an OS
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ File system aspect could be based on semantic
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – How does MESH play into this … or similar
• Open – Ontologies, Rules, Data Records, Data Mappings, Query Interface,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – Key break down of basic semantic framework
• Standards
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ OWL – Built on RDF … more expressive schemas
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ SWIRL – Rules Language
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Griddle – Transform data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Sparkle – Another RDF solution
• 6/6/2008, 6:36 AM
• Basic Unit of Data in Semantic Web
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Triple – Subject , Predicate, Object (susan, works for, IBM)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ URI – Points to location on web with further information on each piece (for the triple) …
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – Linking database definitions or file definitions cross site
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Then link data records – create open database
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Better term “Data Web”
• 6/6/2008, 6:39 AM
• Table isn’t how we think
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ List of triples … but lists get really REALLY long … talking billions
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Vomits a DB to stick triples in DB
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Solve this via ‘Triple Store” … new DB designed for this
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Easier to maintain
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ List A + List B = List C
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,□ Bauer Comment – Hello VSAM
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Form and Dissolve database relationship structure
• 6/6/2008, 6:41 AM
• Linked data universe
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Number of ontologies cover various Ontologies
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Reviews, Music, Communities, etc
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – Open XML standards are similar
• 6/6/2008, 6:42 AM
• Right now
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Early adoption period
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ A lot of momentum in developers … early applications like Twine
• Focus today is how to become more open
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Data portability project
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Semantic web enables portability
• Very hard … no tools
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Two examples
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ FOOF – Friend of Friend
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Shock – Sharing forums
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ API’s get more open in next year
• Twine
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ TO get into beta — nova@radarnetworks.com nextweb2008 twine
• Q&A
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ 6/6/2008, 6:47 AM
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Economic consequences of this? New business models? Theme.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Semantic web doesn’t create new business models. Just makes existing ones better.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – Better can be disruption for existing players that don’t change
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Example of new player – Singechay (sp?) … semantic commerce, ads, etc
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Open standards … enable?
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Semantic web … can you use it to lock in users?
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Technically if you use the open standards … it is easier (in his view)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Focus more on value creation … not lock in
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Trick to lock in … make your own Ontology … stuck in your system
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Reason web succeeded was simple … Semantic web isn’t
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Key question is how long did WWW take to get defined … 15 years
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ We typically think of explosion point in early 90’s
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Get to point of ‘easier’ to use
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Gap is tools for Semantic web … estimate 1st wave 12-18 months … twine is open up hosted development tools
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Semantic requires definitions of objects and relationships… how get agreement
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – Whispering in background about ‘free beers at door’ … hehe
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Semantic web designed for disagreement
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Good but many definitions
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – Similar to MLS in real estate market
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Built into standard you can map across Onotologies
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Anyone can make associations … community driven …
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – so the walls come down via crowd
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Amazed on how quickly google tagged images online
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Twine is doing same .
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Social network for sharing knowledge … discover around interest
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Add information auto tags
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Learn and make recommendations
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Open more in summer / fall
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Tries to automate RDF setup
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What Matters (Pausch) — What Creates Focus

Given I spend so much of my life heads down I try to periodically look up and listen to speakers on the subject of the purpose of work and life as a whole. Randy Pausch, author of the best seller Last Lecture, is my most recent counsel on that front. You see, Randy Pausch was given six months to live back in late 2007, but has used that time as a platform to demonstrate how to live life … even in the face of death. So, when I noticed that Randy was giving the ‘charge’ to the current graduating class of Carnegie Mellon I thought: I wonder how he is doing. More importantly, what is he thinking. As usual, Randy didn’t let me down. My thoughts … on his thoughts … below (and detail notes of course).

Details Notable Points Title/Link: 5/18/08 Address 9/21/08 – Good Morning America Interview (best summary) 9/18/08 – The Last Lecture Duration: ~5m ~10m ~85m Presenter: Randy Pausch Professor @ Carnegie Mellon specializing in Virtual Worlds Recommend to Watch? Yes Specifically I would watch the ABC summary clip. It summarizes his key points well from the 9/18 lecture that started it all. Then the 5/18 address as I think it was on of his better insights (and new). The lecture itself is probably something you want to skim the notes on. 1. We don’t beat the reaper by living longer … We beat him by living well This was his best point. Today’s society is so focused on how long we can live and not so much on what it means to live well. Really that is what matters. 2.It isn’t what you DID that bothers you on your death bed, it’s what you DIDN’T I know personally there are things I hope to chase and haven’t … 3. Find Your Passion … In People Randy points out that passion focused around things and/or money is a slippery slope. Both are easily measured and others will always have more leading to a life of chasing what can never be attained as the target is always moving. However, your passion will always be yours and attainable. More interestingly, as you discover your passion you find it is intricately interwoven in people. In relationships. These relationships are also attainable and rewarding. Especially when they are founded on respect and true love for one another. 4. What Focuses I notated in the title “What focuses” because it intrigues me how I didn’t know Randy Pausch before he became terminally ill … but I should have. Its interesting how I (and people in general) allocate attention when death is involved. Would we have listened to Randy’s words if he wasn’t dying? I don’t think I would have as it would of been similar to so many voices on the subject. But, similar to Tuesday’s With Morrie and My Life, when the speaker is clearly dying … a ring of truth arises … an aura of focus. And rightly so. My (our) increased focus on Randy due to his situation is actually a corollary to our lives in total. His situation is our situation. We are all dying. And when we realize our time is finite we become inspired/focused on how to live it ‘well’ to Randy’s first point. Wouldn’t it be great if we had such focus all the time?

Moving on, I think the last ‘notable point’ above is the point I am taking forward to ponder more.

How do I maintain perspective on each the gift of each moment?.

If I can solve that for myself, I suspect I will be answer Randy’s challenge of living well when my time comes.

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

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Randy Pausch
83k views
……………..

…………….○
…………….○ Randy Pausch addresses graduating class
…………….. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcYv5x6gZTA&feature=userhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcYv5x6gZTA&feature=user
…………….○ 6/5/2008, 7:07 AM
…………………………..§ Recap of his
…………………………………………□ He loves carnegie mellon
…………………………………………□ Cancer update … on month 9
…………………………..§ Beating Grim Reaper …
…………………………………………□ Don’t beat by living longer
…………………………………………□ Beat by living well
…………………………………………□ Reaper will come for all of us
…………………………………………□ Key is what you do between when you are born and when he shows up
…………………………………………□ Once he shows it is too late
…………………………..§ What we did isn’t what we regret … it what we didn’t do
…………………………………………□ From his view looking at his life
…………………………..§ Passion (find it)
…………………………………………□ It is never too late
…………………………………………□ Find it … follow it
…………………………………………□ Not in things …
…………………………………………□ Not in money …
…………………………………………□ In people
…………………………..§ To be thought well of by your peers is a tremendous honor
…………………………..§ So your passion will be grounded in people and the relationships and what they think of you
…………………………..§ Reference to late marriage being an indicator of passion for spouse … true love
…………………………………………□ Carries her off
…………….○
…………….○ Original “Last Lecture” Notes
…………….○

Druation 1:15
Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams
…………….○ 2.5 Million Viewers
…………….○ 3-6 months to live
…………….○ 6/4/2008, 6:11 AM
…………….○ Example of health … push ups … good shapes
…………….○ Not talking about
…………………………..§ Cancer, my wife/kids, spirituality/religion
…………………………..§ Did just buy a mac
…………………………..§ Bauer Comment – he is funny
…………….○ Todays Talk
…………………………..§ His dreams
…………………………..§ Enable dreams of others
…………………………..§ Lessons learned
…………….○ 6/4/2008, 6:13 AM
…………….○ Born in 1960 … 8 years old on moon landing
…………….○ Inspiration to dream
…………….○ His dream
…………………………..§ Zero gravity, Playing in NFL, World Book Author, Captain Kirk, Stuffed Animals, Disney Imagineer
…………………………..§ Zero Gravity
…………………………………………□ Did the vomit comet
…………………………………………□ Got around rules by applying as a journalist
…………………………..§ NFL
…………………………………………□ Learned team … from Coach Jim Graham (sp?) … 22 guys … 1 guy w/ ball
…………………………………………□ Get fundamentals down
…………………………………………□ Coach riding him was a gift … bad place is when no one says anything as you screw up
…………………………………………□ Experience is what you get when you didn’t get what you wanted
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – Good point
…………………………………………□ Learn indirectly … head fake learning
…………………………..§ Article in World Book
…………………………………………□ Authored article for virtual reality
…………………………..§ Meeting Captain Kirk
…………………………………………□ Great role model
…………………………………………□ Not smartest guy (spock, scotty)
…………………………………………□ Leadership was his skill
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – Hard to measure … but interesting point … no love for Kirk
…………………………………………□ Met Kirk. Came to see their VR setup of red alert
…………………………………………□ Cool was his idol coming to see him
…………………………..§ 6/4/2008, 6:25 AM
…………………………..§ Winning Stuffed Animals
…………………………………………□ Won a lot of them
…………………………..§ 6/4/2008, 6:27 AM
…………………………..§ Being an Imagineer
…………………………………………□ For Disney
…………………………………………□ Hit brick wall
…………………………………………□ Point of brick walls is to stop people that don’t want it badly enough
…………………………………………□ So here is how he worked around it … VR on $5/day
…………………………………………□ Walt Disney … Denying VR … Aladdin Attraction … Gator Vision
……………………………………………………….® Brief secretary of Defense on VR
……………………………………………………….® Gave him excuse to meet Walt Disney use Sec Defense meeting … to see their setup
……………………………………………………….® 80 hours … talking to all experts in world … what to ask disney
……………………………………………………….® 2hr lunch w/ Jon Snody … Sabbatical coming up … asked to work w/ them
……………………………………………………….® Wait long enough …people will surprise and impress you
…………………………………………□ Dean @ Univ VA (Dean Wormer – Name not important)
……………………………………………………….® Clause on owning IP … told him to block it
……………………………………………………….® Unpaid leave of absence …
……………………………………………………….® Dean said wouldn’t allow that
……………………………………………………….® Got into pissing match … get out of it
……………………………………………………….® Redirect to dean of sponsored research
……………………………………………………….® He talked to him different “Star Prof, Want to Hear more”
…………………………………………□ Some brick walls are made of flesh
…………………………………………□ Charlie and Chocolate Factory
……………………………………………………….® Get everything you wanted … “Lives Happily Ever After”
…………………………………………□ How to put artist and engineers together
…………………………………………□ Turned down being a full time imagineer …
…………………………………………□ Instead became 1 day a week consultant
……………………………………………………….® Virtual Jungle Cruise
……………………………………………………….® Pirates of Caribbean best done
…………………………..§ 6/4/2008, 6:40 AM
…………………………..§ How enable dreams of others?
…………………………………………□ Professorship
…………………………………………□ Tommy … student … told him want to work on next star wars film (1993)
……………………………………………………….® Told him there wouldn’t be a sequel
……………………………………………………….® Tommy work on all 3 of the next films
…………………………………………□ Building virtual worlds (created a course)
…………………………………………□ Random teams … 4 wks … rebuild team … 5 projects a semester
…………………………………………□ Texture mapping, 3D graphics … was awesome
…………………………………………□ No violence, pornography … been done … stumped his male students
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – heh
…………………………………………□ Copied process from VR lab
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – interesting … 2 week sprints … rotate members
…………………………………………□ Students went beyond his expectations … he challenged them to do better
…………………………………………□ 6/4/2008, 6:48 AM
…………………………………………□ Example of hello world
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment … rather amusing at end
…………………………………………□ People would line up to register for his course
…………………………………………□ Favorite … roller skating ninja
……………………………………………………….® World crashed
……………………………………………………….® Pulled out ninja sword … “I am dishonored” die
……………………………………………………….® Teammates drag him off
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – Funny
…………………………………………□ Hard to hand stuff over … find someone better
…………………………..§ 6/4/2008, 6:55 AM
…………………………..§ The Dream Fulfillment Factory
…………………………………………□ Don marinelli (Drama), and him Randy Pausch (CS)
…………………………………………□ Entertainment Technology Center
…………………………………………□ 2 years masters degree … Masters of Entertainment Technology
…………………………………………□ 6/4/2008, 6:58 AM
…………………………………………□ A lot of talk of Don and his serious energy
…………………………………………□ Gives most credit to Don for ETC
…………………………………………□ All time spent making stuff … no book learning
…………………………………………□ 6/4/2008, 6:59 AM
…………………………………………□ No dean’s to report to … liscense to break mold … field trips … 50 students to pixar
…………………………………………□ Have 5 contracts from companies will hire students for summer internships
…………………………………………□ Focus Groups … Learning to Work In Groups
……………………………………………………….® Do peer feedback from each group on how your work style does
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – Great point … broad sample set
……………………………………………………….® Best gift of an educator … help people self reflect
…………………………..§ Alice Project
…………………………………………□ How to teach computer programming
…………………………………………□ Fake kids into learning to code … by helping them to learn code games /movies
…………………………………………□ Alice is his legacy
…………………………………………□ Java … next wave …. 2008 … v3.0 … using SIM characters
…………………………………………□ Wanda is who to email …
…………………………..§ 54min in
…………………………..§ Lessons Learned
…………………………………………□ Parents, Mentors, Students
…………………………………………□ Reflect on his parents
…………………………………………□ His remembers them as giving, fun, talented, etc
…………………………………………□ His dad got the bronze star for service in WWII … never told anyone (found it after he died)
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – now that is a deep point …
…………………………………………□ Allowed him to paint his room
…………………………………………□ Andy van Dam
……………………………………………………….® Hi mentor
……………………………………………………….® Got him to go to grad school
……………………………………………………….® Dutch uncled him … told him his arrogance would limit him
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Bauer Comment – honesty from a peer
……………………………………………………….® Job advice was best … prof route for career
……………………………………………………….® Told him to use his sales skills selling education … not some widget
…………………………………………□ Best point of all time – student
……………………………………………………….® Why is alice I fun?
……………………………………………………….® Approach teaching as a story telling activity
…………………………………………□ Mentors counsel him to talk about fun
……………………………………………………….® He is having fun … even now
…………………………………………□ Are you tigger or eyore?
…………………………………………□ Never lose childlike wonder
…………………………………………□ Help others
……………………………………………………….® Working class roots
…………………………………………□ Kept his letterman jacket
……………………………………………………….® Shows it
…………………………………………□ Relationships
……………………………………………………….® Loyalty – 2 way street
……………………………………………………….® Student … has dean not liking him … he went in to vouch for him
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Put his tenure case on the line
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Bauer Comment – interesting job risked in favor of people and loyalty
……………………………………………………….® To assess people … ignore what they say … look at what they do
…………………………………………□ Never give up
……………………………………………………….® Never got into Brown University
……………………………………………………….® Carnegie Mellon turned him down … met w/ Dean (met w/ him)
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Bauer Comment – interesting … similar to dana
……………………………………………………….® Talked to Berkley and Cornell … not right
……………………………………………………….® So Dutch called
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Nico .. Allows to see him @ 8 a.m.
……………………………………………………………………………………► Why are we here?
……………………………………………………………………………………► He tried to show he has a fellowship … didn’t matter
……………………………………………………………………………………► Nico wanted to know why …
……………………………………………………………………………………► Key was know why you are blessed and say it
…………………………………………□ How get help from people
……………………………………………………….® Being honest … no hip … earnst
……………………………………………………….® Apologize when you screw up
……………………………………………………….® Focus on others
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Example brings out cake for his wife’s bday in lecture
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Sings b-day song (Jay)
…………………………………………□ Remember Brick Walls … Are there for those that don’t want the dream bad enough
…………………………………………□ Don’t bail … best gold at bottom of barrels of crap
……………………………………………………….® EA sabbatical story
……………………………………………………….® They were going to give funding to another company for Alice concept
…………………………………………□ Get a feedback loop and listen
……………………………………………………….® Data from surveys
……………………………………………………….® Peers
……………………………………………………….® Key is listening … anyone can get chewed out
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Bauer Comment – excellent point
…………………………………………□ Show Gratitude
……………………………………………………….® Took em to disney world
…………………………………………□ Don’t complain … work harder
…………………………………………□ Keys
……………………………………………………….® Be good at something … it makes you valuable
……………………………………………………….® Work hard
……………………………………………………….® Find best in everyone
……………………………………………………….® Luck – prep + opp
…………………………..§ Wrap up
…………………………………………□ His final head fake
…………………………………………□ This isn’t about achieving dreams
…………………………………………□ It is living right … as dreams come true in that manner
…………………………………………□ 2nd head fake
…………………………………………□ All he does (like this) is for his kids
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Clay Shirky (Author): The World Is Drunk, On TV

Have you ever wished …

• For more time?
• To have a greater purpose than just the 9 to 5 job?
• To not have to pay your cable company?
  

I have, so when I tripped across Clay Shirky (author of “Here Comes Everybody: Organizing Without Organizations”) speaking I caught a snippet of these themes in his opening remarks. His style and flow seemed solid … so I hit play and started running.

Details

Notable Points

Title/Link: Here Comes Everybody at the Web 2.0 Conference in SF Duration: ~25m Speakers: Clay Shirky Writer (web focus since 1996, 4 books), Consultant, Teacher (NYU). Recommend to Watch? Yes Clay comes at time management from a new angle … not why you should do it … or how … but rather how society is moving to it regardless

1. The World Is Drunk, On TV Clay points out that about 60 years ago there was a notable change. All of a sudden, the world had a ton of free time. Just as the key to the industrial revolution was getting drunk on gin to deal w/ the change going on … in our times society freaked out and ended up overdosing on the first outlet they found (TV/Big Media). 2. But All Benders Have to Come To An End And we are coming to the end of ours. No more reliance on TV to numb away our free time. There is now a way to use that capital to do something more. Enter “Crowd Force” and “Community Projects” like Wikipedia, You Tube, Blogging, etc. 3. Don’t Get Snotty, Playing With Your PC is FAR BETTER Than TV He commented on how people who play World of Warcraft (guilty) are using their time far more wisely than TV gazers. They, at least, are building relationships and interacting (a give and take between them and the game). Who interacts w/ TV? 3. Your Kids Next Question — “Daddy, Where Is The Mouse”? His closing story was a father / daughter watching TV. She disappears behind the TV and comes back out and says “Daddy, Where Is The Mouse”. Point being, she is growing up in a world where the memorizing TUBE isn’t enough. She wants to interact .. Watch out big media.

So, 10 points to Clay for framing an interesting view on what is going on today to enable the community movement behind so many initiatives. It provides definite context on why this isn’t a fad but rather the re-awakening of people … and how they use their time.

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

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• 5/7/2008, 6:24 AM
• http://blip.tv/file/855937
• Clay Shirky
…………….○ GIN key was transformation during industrial revolution in London
…………………………..§ Meaning people freaked out, didn’t innovate till they recovered from hangover
…………………………..§ Then the new stuff came — elected officials, libraries, etc
…………….○ Social lubricant for today
…………………………..§ Sit Com
…………………………..§ In our time … 1st time we had ‘free time’
…………………………..§ Went to TV … initially
…………………………..§ TV was our GIN … now we are realizing free time shouldn’t be TV
…………….○ 5/7/2008, 6:27 AM
…………….○ New Book – Here Comes Everybody
…………………………..§ What is interesting – Wikipedia article on Pluto
…………………………………………□ How community evolved the definition
…………………………..§ The counter was “where do people find the time” from interviewer
…………………………………………□ The time comes from TV (which mass media doesn’t want you to give up)
…………………………..§ 200 BILLION hours a year on TV
…………………………………………□ 2000 Wikipedia projects could be done w/ that
…………………………..§ 100 MILLION HOURS a weekend … watching just the ads
…………….○ 5/7/2008, 6:30 AM
…………….○ What to do w/ the surplus (like Gin)
…………………………..§ People experiment on how to use
…………………………..§ Explore complex ecosystems … try lots of things
…………………………..§ Failures leave the trail of where not to go
…………….○ Wikimap for crime in Brazil
…………………………..§ Pushpin on Google
…………………………..§ Start see map of where crimes are
…………………………..§ Something society knows but can’t get a accurate easy hold on
…………………………..§ Cops aren’t incented to provide it in a model for consumers to use / slice
…………….○ So the TV generation … finds time … by shutting off TV (like Gin Generation w/ prior)
…………….○ 5/7/2008, 6:33 AM
…………….○ WOW Guilds
…………………………..§ Doing something w/ people (better than TV)
…………………………..§ Example to Gilligan Island … how they almost ALWAYS got off the island … but never did
…………………………..§ Worse to sit in basement and argue about reality TV
…………………………..§ Better to something than nothing
…………………………..§ Even ‘wall cats’ … hold out invitation for participation … anyone can mark up walls
…………………………..§ Media doesn’t understand
…………………………………………□ Run prior to now as consumption model
…………….○ 5/7/2008, 6:35 AM
…………….○ Triathlon
…………………………..§ Consumer (sure), Produce, Share
…………………………..§ They will take up offer to produce and share
…………….○ Small change
…………………………..§ 1% … 1 TRILLION HRS of TV a year watched by internet site people
…………………………..§ That’s 1000 Wikipedia sites … which are community models
…………….○ 5/7/2008, 6:37 AM
…………….○ Isn’t this a Fad (still with his recall of an interview over his book)
…………………………..§ Big one time shift ala industrial revolution
…………….○ Sitting w/ 4 year old daughter — story
…………………………..§ Girl goes behind TV … tryin g Shutting off TV … looking for mouse
…………………………..§ Kids think media w/o mouse are not interactive enough … want that or will go elsewhere
…………….○ 5/7/2008, 6:39 AM
…………….○ Repeat consume, produce, share
…………………………..§ Work hammer, tong … figure out next idea … look for mouse (where it isn’t today) .. Reference to TV story above

** END RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING **

Paul Graham (YCombinator): Unleash the Cockroach In You

Here is a sign when you need to watch a webcast. You briefly scan the comments … and then, for some reason, one image … one phrase … sticks in your head.

Such was my experience w/ Paul Graham’s reference to why we all (but especially startups) need to be more like cockroaches. I was impressed since:

1. What better visual could a new businesses have for its stakeholders and themselves on the attitude they wanted to take on how time and money should be spent?
   
2. The cockroach as a role model was an interesting one. On one hand you have the eventual masters of planet earth. On the other hand they are ugly.
   

I needed some grounding, so I fired it up to see the context that Paul positioned our six legged friend in.

Details

Notable Points

Title/Link: Make Something People Want at Startup School Duration: ~30m Speakers: Paul Graham Founder, YCombinator (startup VC) but made his mark by selling Yahoo his company ViaWeb which then became the basis for Yahoo! Store. Recommend to Watch? Amen Brother! Paul is an excellent speaker and I think what he is talking about here applies to startups, businesses, and people in general.

1. First The Cockroach … Symbol of Humility Actually the cockroach didn’t play a large part of his talk … but I liked it and I am writing this … so it gets top billing. What was interesting was that startups, businesses, and people tend to go large with their risks. Similar to the U.S. “Shock and Awe” foreign policy. Unfortunately, while “Shock and Awe” sounds cool it doesn’t seem to work in war (has Iraq given up yet?) and it doesn’t work in alot of business conditions. What works more consistently is focusing on survival and adaptation. Granted, not as sexy. But buying time and adapting till the moment arrives to go big just resonates with me. It removes/reduces the timing variable in any investment model (since few ideas are right out of the gate). So, as Paul Graham recommends, start as a cockroach, then wait for the time to morph. 2. His Primary Point In The Talk — Get the Wind At Your Back From Benevolence He positioned this in the context of sea battles. How early sailing ships jockeyed for weather gauge (wind). Then he pointed out the wind advantage in business (or personal life) is having your cause be one that people can rally around. A ‘benevolent’ cause. If you can get your business to resonate with benevolence you get (1) better employee moral (2) better help from external entities and (3) have a decisive standard to act from. Craiglist was one example of a company w/ a inner spirit of benevolence. He pointed out they could have charged more but instead they focused on a culture that tried to be as small as possible and charge less (if not zero). Definitely against the supersize culture (and marketing style) in the USA. 3. Benevolence is Like Being Robin Hood … But Careful … Or You’ll Become The Rich He showed how since the late 90’s MSFT has been flat in valuation. He then asked the audience to think about if that was that due to Robin Hood (MSFT) winning the battle against John of England (IBM) but in doing so forgetting that their appeal to the people was operating in a lifestyle similar to their own (underdog)? If that is true (which it is) how did leaving Sherwood Forest’s simple way of life (doing business) impact the passion of the employees that worked for them? How their partners treated them? How customers saw them? Is that temptation repeating now with Apple (the new Robin Hood) taking on MSFT (the new John of England)? I have to agree I have begun to feel Apple is manipulating me more and more … can’t put programs on iPhone without getting approval from them and selling through them, can’t use anything but their hardware/software bundles, etc. Sounds like John of England to me. Sorry Apple Fan Boys.

I am now a Paul Graham fan. Great insights and style of presentation. If you are still reading I would be curious on your views on:

1. How do the businesses we work for (or own, our ourselves personally) do to avoid the temptation of leaving Sherwood Forest (embracing a simple life and giving the rest back)?
   
2. Is that viable? Or just idealism talking?
3. And how about that Cockroach. Is that inspiring or just a gross visual?
   

Deep stuff … for me anyway.

** START OF RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING **

• Make Something People Want – Paul Graham founder of Ycombinator
• http://omnisio.com/startupschool08/paul-graham-at-startup-school-08
• 5/5/2008, 6:34 AM
…………….○ 280slides is being used for his presentation (some hiccups prior to his pitch)
…………….○ Make something people want
…………………………..§ Not 3 words
…………….○ Don’t worry about money
…………….○ Add together = Non profit
…………………………..§ Weird result … bug or new discovery?
…………….○ For example, Craigslist … is the above
…………………………..§ # of employees @ Craigslist … $/employee is HUGE
…………….○ Get ‘weather gauge’ … to decide when / where to engage
…………………………..§ Low op size gives you weather gauge
…………….○ Focus this thought
…………….○ Focus just on your 1st stage of your company
…………….○ Google was like that … low size
…………….○ There are ideas that have to be profit making companies to be done right (not non-profit)
…………….○ Successful startups … look like non-profits?
…………….○ Would all non-profits make good companies?
…………………………..§ Users have to have money
…………….○ To test idea … ask how far you would go to bet against it
…………………………..§ Benevolent models are hard to beat
…………….○ Just internet startups?
…………………………..§ Look at MSFT
…………………………..§ They were robin hood early on … IBM was the sheriff of nottingham trying to chare high $ for PCs
…………………………..§ They changed to the sheriff later
…………………………………………□ Stock has been flat since they went to sheriff role (due to size)
…………………………..§ Small you can’t bully users … you have to be nice … but once big … you can be mean …
…………….○ Don’t be evil might be the most important point of Paul B. to Google
…………………………..§ Catch is people will hold you to it
…………….○ A lot of evidence is benevolence works
…………….○ 5/5/2008, 6:44 AM
…………….○ 3 ways it helps (benevolence)
…………………………..§ Morale
…………………………………………□ Roller coaster of emotion … downside is your people stop working on downside
…………………………………………□ SO less times of feeling failures … if you feel like you have a greater mission … someone needs your help
…………………………..§ Others want to help
…………………………..§ You are decisive
…………….○ 5/5/2008, 6:46 AM
…………….○ Blogger … low lows … and survived
…………………………..§ One point ran out of money
…………………………..§ Evan Williams came back and he was the only one there … users needing him kept him going
…………………………..§ Users to take care of you are forced to take care of what they want
…………….○ Founder of Chatterous
…………………………..§ They realized they didn’t care if they had to move into their house ..
…………………………..§ Cared less about $
…………………………..§ Investors became more interested … their lack of need … the passion
…………….○ 5/5/2008, 6:48 AM
…………….○ Cockroach image
…………………………..§ This is the model for early phase business
…………………………..§ All come close to death … multiple times
…………………………..§ One attribute … doing good for the world … makes you get off the mat like rocky (my comment)
…………….○ Octapart
…………………………..§ Search site for industrial components
…………………………..§ Right way to search
…………………………..§ Bauer comment – edging in on manufacturers as well of parts
…………………………..§ Digikey … another competitor … trying to force them to stop … they operate on little information on price
…………………………..§ Nice founders
…………………………..§ Dropped out of Berkeley to do this
…………………………..§ He wanted to help them … because people are trying to stop them
…………………………..§ Because they are robin hood (benevolence)
…………………………..§ People will rally …employees, investors, customers
…………….○ A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week
…………………………..§ Picture of a general
…………………………..§ Translation get out there and start the battle … get engaged w/ the customers … will they tell their friends?
…………….○ 5/5/2008, 6:53 AM
…………….○ Being good … good in situation where things change fast
…………………………..§ Lying you have to remember a lot
…………………………..§ Truth you have to remember little
…………………………..§ Example … 80 startups … 57 are alive … invested in
…………………………………………□ When advising 57 … have to have a stateless (not specific to startups) due to they can’t remember
…………….○ Talk about being good … people assume you are beating the drum that you are good
…………………………..§ He isn’t not good
…………………………..§ He was loud … as a kid
…………………………..§ People don’t say he is a great guy … just say ‘he means well’
…………………………………………□ So he is average
…………….○ Don’t just be evil … be good
…………….○ 5/5/2008, 6:56 AM
…………….○ Q&A
…………………………..§ How many startups company’s have motto’s / mission statements / creedo’s?
…………………………………………□ He talked in general
…………………………………………□ Then pointed out the ‘good plan, execute’ concept
…………………………..§ Should people finish college grad degree or go start a company after undergrad
…………………………………………□ Not excited about leaving college
…………………………………………□ Making $ and startups isn’t the only thing in life … have fun … learn stuff …. Your idea might be that great … ideas come along quite often
…………………………..§ Most college graduates work for dropouts
…………………………………………□ Maybe
…………………………………………□ (guy sterotypes that everyone that runs /advises companies … )
……………………………………………………….® Follow your passion
……………………………………………………….® Guy gets loud
…………………………………………□ Maybe (nice counter … must be a Jim Fay fan
…………………………..§ Ideas that are already out there … what material to you read to get ideas
…………………………………………□ Look for problems … find good problems … stuff that seems broken
…………………………..§ What emphasis on web2.0 … all your companies you have funded are web2.0 … versus fundamental problem like search or security
…………………………………………□ Searching for components is fundamental
…………………………………………□ They have funded some infra players … like 2 DBMS players
…………………………………………□ They fund what is applied
…………………………………………□ It’s really driven by what the entrepreneurs are offering to do
…………………………..§ What factors used to determine what you fund
…………………………………………□ What they like …people that do stuff they like
…………………………………………□ No evil
…………………………………………□ Look for people that looks like they are going to exceed
…………………………………………□ Fund founders they like and think they are going succeed … and it turns out their bio is one of benevolence

** END RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING **

Live Mesh: Goodbye Facebook & Friendfeed?

Ask 3 people what Live Mesh is you’ll get three answers. Ask 97 more and you’ll get blank looks. Good thing innovation is not a democracy.

Live Mesh was put to a ‘technical release’ last week to perhaps 20,000 of your closest friends. The interesting thing was as you listened to the jabber they all portrayed it differently. Some boring and some hinting at what could be. It was the latter that got my interest but it took three different webcasts (raw scribble from each below) to boil it down for me.

Details

Notable Points

Webcast(s) Vid 1 – Hands On With Live Mesh The simple view. Mesh is file synching/sharing between devices. Vid 1 – Amit @ Web 2.0 Expo Here you got the marketing hype and a glimmer of the potential. Vid 1 – Ozzie & Udell After 7m of back and forth Ozzie goes into more detail on the potential Duration(s) Respectively: ~40m, ~10m, ~35m Speaker(s) Repectively: Vid 1 – Who knows. Guys on Mesh Team. Vid 2 – Amit Mital. Faceman on Mesh for MSFT. Vid 3 – Ray Ozzie. Head man @ MSFT (came from Groove). Recommend to Watch? Depends. Each one is a different audience. Vid 1is for the average consumer, vid 2 is for the companies that are in similar spaces (ISVs, partners of MSFT), and vid 3 is more of a strategist view.

1. The Basics – A very transparent file share, remote PC control For those looking for the quick answer. The features that are here and now is a very transparent sharing of files between your devices (phone, laptops, tower) AND friends (email em and they get a virtual folder of your folder). Plus you can login to that rig similar to remote desktop but via the mesh. Through firewalls (DOH! I just logged into my work PC without my RSA / VPN login – can you say security breach). 2. Now add some spice – Updates native with the folder view. So the first thing isn’t too exciting (sharing folders) unless you are in charge of security (then its a headache). For those not grabbing aspirin, you more spice from the seamless injection of Mesh into typical tasks (excellent usability after MSFT’s Ribbon debacle). An example is how the any folder shared by mesh shows you automatically what changes your ‘mesh’ of friends have done to the folder at a document level. Holy smokes. Now we are starting to enable very nicely basic, document centric collaboration. This is like automatic twitters (I’m timbauer on twitter by the way) to the group you are collaborating on documents with. “Hey, I changed this file”, “I added this one”, “I nuked that one” 3. Now add some sizzle – You Become Facebook. People in the blogsphere get their panties in a bind over the aggregation sites taking advantage of their pieces of content. Like the debate (nicely written by Louis Gray) around aggregation sites allowing conversations on content produced elsewhere (they lose potential visibility and traffic revenue). What if your comments on XYZ thing were shared to all people in your mesh peer-to-peer? Instead of a central site like Twitter or Facebook or Friendfeed … you just had a backbone like Live Mesh? The development style would shift to consuming peer to peer facades … facades that pulled from the mesh and synch your thoughts (basically files of data) back to the originating peers. You, in short, become facebook without facebook as it is today. All you need is your favorite “Live Mesh” facade on the local device. Presto. 3. MSFT Strategery – Use What They Have (Documents) To Get What They Don’t (Marketplace/Search). MSFT is losing at this time the battle in search and social networks. The beauty of live mesh is the strategy it enables for them. They have always controlled a large share of the desktops and with it the digital assets that reside there. What they have realized (I think) is that if they can rebuild the social network into a social PEER-to-PEER network (where they provide the ‘to’ infrastructure) they can regain control or at least relevance. Ozzie’s tenure w/ Groove has to be behind this mindshift. Enable people share the chunks of social network activity (files, posts, articles, comments, etc) in a peer-to-peer synch model … not some push to a central site concept like Facebook. In doing so MSFTs software plays a central role. And with a central role they can inject things like … say … how to do an AdSense on the stuff you share on the mesh that gets views leading to commerce. I wonder what Google thinks about that … hehe.

In summary, Live Mesh is worth pondering. What you see now is misleading. It is NOT is just a repackaging of what has been around for awhile (synching files between PCs, remote desktop connectivity). If what is hinted at above is realized it could become the platform for transparency of sharing all files … links, tweets, comments, images, blog posts, docs … across all devices … pcs, phones, OTHER SYSTEMS. If you ponder that prior sentence you can see how it disrupts the current centralized model (sites like MySpace, Facebook, Friendfeed) for social networking. There is no facebook or friendfeed required. All the pieces are pushed around … peer to peer … via live mesh. All you need is your favorite “Mesh” reader to see all the ‘file data’ being synch’d to you and rolled up the way you want it. And MSFT has leverage in that market (PC devices per consumer).

Consider me sold. MSFT’s vision of peer-to-peer when fully baked will trump the current centralized sites that drive it today.

** START OF RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING **

***********************************************
******** 1st VID – HANDS ON WITH LIVE MESH **********
***********************************************
• http://on10.net/blogs/nic/Hands-on-with-Live-Mesh/
• 4/24/2008, 6:13 AM
………………○ Live Mesh Team
………………………………§ Noah
………………………………§ George
………………○ Referenced at MIX a few months back
• 4/24/2008, 6:14 AM
• Goal put you at center of your computers and stuff
………………○ Data
………………○ Application / Computer access
• Use cases
………………○ Tie to your rigs
………………○ Data synch
………………○ Remote Desktop (Bauer words)
• BAUER COMMENT – ISNT THIS A FANCY UI ON EXISTING FUNCTIONS?
• 4/24/2008, 6:16 AM
• Demo
………………○ Blue folders allow synch and share across mesh
………………○ BAUER COMMENT – Team file sharing?
………………○ Uses remote desktops (through firewalls and NATs)
………………○ BAUER COMMENT – Might press AMZN’s AMI model … relative to vendor play of on demand usage … but AMZN has payment engine behind usage .. Not clear here if they can
………………○ Through a browser
• 4/24/2008, 6:19 AM
• Browser
………………○ Browser experience is slower
………………○ Also have client experience
• 4/24/2008, 6:19 AM
• Folders
………………○ Live on ALL machines
………………○ Auto replication?
………………○ INCLUDING VIRTUAL DEVICE
………………○ Bauer comment — So they are pushing to virtual storage (backup) …
• Timeline
………………○ See members
………………○ See timeline
………………○ See presence
………………○ Bauer comment – Looks like office live
• 4/24/2008, 6:21 AM
• Data
………………○ See anywhere
………………○ BAUER COMMENT – Might be a killer for sharepoint … alfresco … for users that use those tools soley around document share
………………○ BAUER QUESTION – File locking … edit conflicts
• 4/24/2008, 6:23 AM
• How hard to add device to mesh
………………○ Add piece of software … connects to cloud
………………○ BAUER ? – can you connect to multiple mesh’s
………………○ Not on mobile and Mac yet
………………………………§ Working on it
• 4/24/2008, 6:25 AM
• Roadmap
………………○ They say this is the 1st step to putting users in center of all their stuff
• How convert folders to mesh
………………○ Simple right click ‘add to mesh’
………………○ Choose what machines get the ‘push’ (versus pull) and force immediate
• Sharing to friends
………………○ Use LiveID … but to invite just send via email
………………○ Share (bauer ? – not edit)
• Location of files
………………○ In the cloud … right now … for sharing outside of mesh
………………○ You can synch to your mesh machines
………………○ So they do push down to devices AND the cloud (offline file)
• 4/24/2008, 6:29 AM
• File types supported, size limits
………………○ None
………………○ Initial release is 5GB of data in cloud
• 4/24/2008, 6:30 AM
• How did this come about / fit into SaaS vision of MSFT
………………○ Everyone has many devices
………………○ How make work as one
………………○ Bauer comment – Kills (depending if not tied to workflow, tagging, etc functions) the salesforce ‘content management’ play … why would you do that .. Create a mesh for you company and put the files there
• 4/24/2008, 6:32 AM
• Products and Solutions that Work Now
………………○ Windows Live … exists and augments
………………○ This is a platform to bring together data and devices
………………○ Then build from there
………………○ Easier file / data sharing platform
• 4/24/2008, 6:33 AM
• Platform .. Will we see different solutions making products from it
………………○ Live Mesh based on synch feeds (ATOM, RSS, etc)
………………○ Other people can plug in and store data in feeds
………………○ App to synch favorites
………………○ App to store todo lists
………………○ App to track stuff
………………○ Could have apps in their UI (Bauer comment – requires MSFT) or as an API (Bauer Comment – like AMZN)
• 4/24/2008, 6:36 AM
• How get access
………………○ Mesh.com … invitation only
• 4/24/2008, 6:38 AM
………………○ SkyDrive / Foldershare
………………………………§ They are all one group
………………○ Bauer comment – If they are all one group it is unlikely this is a free play (pricing not mentioned … key in what isn’t said). However office live is free (but its in beta) and does a similar function (w/o synch local, provides cloud).
***********************************************
******** 1st VID – END — *************** **********
***********************************************
**
**
***********************************************
******** 2nd VID – AMIT KEYNOTE ******************
***********************************************
http://blip.tv/file/854328/
Web 2.0 Expo
10m
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 6:30 AM
…………..○ Bauer comment – how about that pump up music at the start [wink]
…………..○ Amit
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 6:31 AM
……………………….§ Web is center
……………………….§ We connect via many devices
……………………….§ How to keep those devices in synch
……………………….§ Ours
……………………….§ And our trusted friends
…………..○ Settings and local favorites
…………..○ Device types – picture frames, macs, phones, laptops, towers, etc
……………………….§ Bauer comment – how many of those devices are on the web?
…………..○ Unified Device management
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 6:34 AM
…………..○ Feeds
……………………….§ Unified feeds
…………..○ Apps
……………………….§ Web based app management
……………………….§ Apps know devices and their capabilities
…………..○ Drop dead simple
……………………….§ Bauer comment – doesn’t jive w/ commentary so far on blog space
…………..○ Demo
……………………….§ Capture video of kid w/ phone
……………………….§ Dad sees on laptop real time on airport
……………………….§ Ims back
……………………….§ Shares a song to his daughter … next second
……………………….§ While kids next room are gaming
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 6:36 AM
…………..○ Everyone gets access to tech preview that is @ Web 2.0 Expo
…………..○ Device Ring is Core Metaphor
……………………….§ On windows PC
……………………….§ Mac / Mobile Next
……………………….§ Future more devices
……………………….§ Folder for anywhere access
……………………………………□ Bauer comment – interesting play … mesh compatible play on device sales like picture frames, touch tables, etc … fully compatible you get more features … becomes an iphone/ipod angle / barrier for MSFT devices
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 6:39 AM
…………..○ Mesh Bar
……………………….§ Single view of devices
……………………….§ Members in folder
……………………….§ News and events in the folder
……………………….§ Notifier lives on task bar … all up view of action on mesh
……………………….§ Also avail on live desktop to get webview
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 6:39 AM
…………..○ Use case shown is just ONE scenario
…………..○ Their focus is PLATFORM
……………………….§ Define model digital relationship between devices, people, assets
……………………….§ OpenAPI
……………………………………□ Yes, MSFT is about Open
……………………………………□ Shows Datamodel browser for Livemesh … dev can mesh format (xml, rss, atom, etc) … so you choose lang/tools … how you interact w/ live mesh
……Bauer comment – How is different than friendfeed?
***********************************************
******** 2nd VID – END ***************************
***********************************************
**
***********************************************
******** 3rd VID – AMIT KEYNOTE *******************
***********************************************
Channel9
John Udell Interviews
http://channel9.msdn.com/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=399578
4/23
36m
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 6:43 AM
…………..○ Whats it like to be @ MSFT (3yrs now)
……………………….§ Was @ IBM. Tremendous on potential impact
……………………….§ He does business, product strategy … intersection
……………………….§ So great job for him
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 6:45 AM
…………..○ What like taking over Gates role
……………………….§ SKIP
…………..○ GOTO 7:30 IN (MESH STARTS)
…………..○ Talk about environment MSFT faces
……………………….§ Mainframe was todays sexy utility. Timesharing. All was there in 70’s.
……………………….§ PC revolution was empowerment to consumer.
……………………….§ Swing of pendulum
……………………….§ Web grew in era of dialup … so built for that … force decentralized .. Thin terminal
……………………….§ Broadband penetration allows fatter clients
……………………….§ Both sides have good power (CPU, Storage) now
……………………….§ What design patterns work for backend and frontend
……………………….§ PC started for one computer for a subset
……………………….§ Moving now to not just one pc person … multiple devices per user … how to tie together … data … personal and cloud … MSFT wants to enable those solutions that balance leverage both
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 6:51 AM
…………..○ Internet OP SYS Space (AMZN, Google). How does MSFT history enable or drive action for them.
……………………….§ MSFT’s Approach.
……………………….§ Knew Bill / Steve since 1981
……………………….§ DNA of MSFT is a platform company … so need ISV community
……………………….§ Platform
……………………….§ Discussions of what different industry models will look like, be built like … given cloud computing … no specifics
……………………….§ MSFT wants to just enable that building … not be the buildings
……………………….§ AMZN. Ground up. Make raw resources (VMs, AMIs) to the developer. Power play.
……………………….§ Google. Tries to simplify cloud w/ constraints. So they serve a niche
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 6:55 AM
…………..○ 16:30 in
…………..○ LIVE MESH … folder share … screen share … can confuse true vision
……………………….§ MSFT core environment — multi device environment
……………………….§ Enterprise side … solved by MSFT via SMS
……………………….§ Now solve for consumer (device management)
……………………….§ So that is one path
……………………….§ 2nd is devices don’t / aren’t built well to work together
……………………………………□ Bauer comment – Is this their trump of OPENID … or could they push to use mesh to push data to various devices (including SYSTEMS)
……………………….§ Data flow … like feeds
……………………….§ Applications … be configured and liscensed
……………………………………□ Bauer comment … again … is this a slow entry to single user
……………………………………□ Bauer comment … msft takes what they have (user content, consumer) and uses mesh to push into systems they don’t control … devices they don’t control … they maintain relevance by owning/channelling the user profile
……………………….§ 4/25/2008, 7:01 AM
……………………….§ File and folder synch gives user a taste of power
……………………………………□ Bauer comment – I think it just allows the user to dismiss … now if the goal is to addict and get them using it (fits theories above) … then this is smart
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 7:02 AM
…………..○ Go beyond files/machines … bring people into the equation … Less obvious … connection to the web … How to optimize … spell that out
……………………….§ Two things (1) rich apps enable on PCs to share settings across devices (2) also websites extend their function to the world of devices
……………………….§ Groove reference … stumbled on … centralized websites … provision workspaces .. Invite users in … users want to take offline … wanted website to go offline … groove was peer sharing … so it do that well
……………………….§ Live mesh fills void of groove … infra … one service … manage synch to devices … data might be peer-to-peer or encrypted or through the cloud … but devices don’t care … developers don’t care … use infra … to push to devices
……………………………………□ Bauer comment – This is alert thingy on steriods … if all apps are synching real time … you go to your mesh console to see the same activity
……………………………………□ Bauer comment – majority of consumers are not sharing over web … in theory … msft has high ground if they can convert that user base via mesh
……………………….§ Use that simple tech … website … device … website … cloud
……………………….§ A feed of feeds … one thing a “mesh object” … represents a site … an element of that feed is other feeds … so an app can have many feeds … members, news, calendar, etc … or custom ones (transactions, recommended links, comments on a site)
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 7:08 AM
……………………….§ Folder is a mesh enabled Object
……………………….§ Item in feed is sub feed
……………………….§ Standard schema by item
……………………….§ News feed off a folder … see to right of folder … item by entry
……………………………………□ Bauer comment — So it would be like alertthingy or twitter offline
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 7:10 AM
…………..○ Banking example …
……………………….§ Local host and do stuff w/ an offline app
……………………….§ Developers want one way of working w/ mesh
……………………….§ Web version of live mesh … and client … same code
……………………………………□ Bauer comment — like AIR
……………………….§ Called MOE (mesh operating environment) … cloud MOE or client MOE same one
…………..○ 4/25/2008, 7:11 AM
…………..○ Synch problems .. How evolved from mistakes of groove
……………………….§ New team … he sponsored
……………………….§ There is a DNA trail … playdoh, lotus notes, groove, live mesh
……………………….§ More work w/ them during his CTO tenure not as much lately
……………………….§ Basic synch, interaction … that is similar
……………………….§ Groove power of adhoc invites … bypass centralized security … so groove users will get that part of mesh
……………………….§ Hope people feel that mesh is very lightweight … notthing there … works across firewalls, nats, double nats … few knobs to turn
……………………….§ Developer kit is NOT on mesh.com right now
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David Heinemeier Hansson: Forget Free, Go Fee

For those not tracking the geek world, David Heinemeier Hansson is a rather successful coder that built some well adopted apps (e.g. Backpack) and a framework that got some people excited about its ease (Ruby on Rails).

O.k. So what …

Well, DHH went on a rant about how the new business model of FREE that everyone is jumping up and down about. Specifically saying how it was nuts. In his view, “real” business startups (not those looking to get bought by some big fish) should focus on bringing value that customers pay for … not how they can be free and gain adoption from that.

Novel thought … but why is he pointing this out?

As usual my raw notes are below, but here are a few key themes that jumped out me as I watched this webcast over lunch

Webcast Details

Notable Points

A secret to making $ Online Presentation video Duration: ~40m Speaker: DHH (see link above) Partner @ 37 signals (consulting firm based in CHI). Force behind Ruby on Rails and apps like Basecamp. Recommend to Watch? Yes. DHH always does a good job w/ slide structure and making the flow of his points (with a bit of shock jock foul mouth thown in). Worth the listen just for that.

1. Free. Fee. Why should you care? David points out an interesting trend in industry. The movement toward free. Recently there was a hoo hah when Google offered an application for free that was just like one David’s company sells on a per month basis called Campfire. I guess that got David thinking about this free versus fee model. You should care because anything you do for free could be the next ‘free’ offering from one of the big boys. What to do? 2. What can you do? Nothing. Momentum is just increasing for free services. The bar only gets lower now that Amazon is offering a cheap hosting model via AWS and Google is offering the free Google App Engine. If you can host and scale for pennies on the dollar … you can’t count on infrastructure for a barrier to entry. 3. O.k. I lied. David Pointed Out Niche As The Answer. David’s solution was focusing on a niche product that you sign a set of dedicated enterprise (not consumer, too fickle) clients to for monthly / yearly offerings. Free solutions will come but will struggle to get marketing to the niche. Its the broadly consumed offerings that will have to fight potentially face pressure on the ‘free’ front consistently.

In summary, gotta give hops to DHH for pointing out the frenzy in business today to launch businesses based on models that are not clear (just build membership) especially in a setting where VC’s are presenting before him. I think he is right to call for a refocus at the individual level especially as he talked about focusing on a niche and delivering to that niche. Much like the line Security through Obscurity … you can protect your business concept by starting small in niche markets. If you go after the mega models (like the next FriendFeed … you have big fish to swim with and will likely get eaten).

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http://omnisio.com/startupschool08/david-heinemeier-hansson-at-startup-school-084/21/2008
11:40 AM
……………○ 4/21/2008, 11:41 AM
…………………………§ 37 signals
………………………………………□ Not hiring
………………………………………□ Not looking for VC $
………………………………………□ Makes them different than most businesses
…………………………§ Their focus – how to be viable outside of big dogs getting bought out
…………………………§ New focus – Don’t focus on the $
……………○ 4/21/2008, 11:43 AM
……………○ A secret to making $ Online
…………………………§ Great application
…………………………§ ???
…………………………§ Profit
……………○ ??? = Price is key
……………○ Point is web 2.0 thinks everything is free … not true
…………………………§ BAUER COMMENT – BASECAMP and their model is paid … so his point is VC $ makes free ok
……………○ Simpler way to build a business
…………………………§ Have a price
…………………………§ Signup
…………………………§ Working 4-5 years … multi-million $ business
……………○ 4/21/2008, 11:45 AM
……………○ Shows campaign monitor (email service, track who clicks on what)
…………………………§ $0.01 per recipient
……………○ 4/21/2008, 11:46 AM
……………○ Shows FogBugz
…………………………§ On Demand
…………………………§ Buy the software
……………○ Show FaxItNice
…………………………§ Route around the fact that many businesses work w/ fax
…………………………§ Wrap it to a nice webservice
…………………………§ Pricing options
………………………………………□ $5 per fax,
………………………………………□ $20 retainer then a per send
………………………………………□ Send and receive faxes monthly
……………○ 4/21/2008, 11:47 AM
……………○ Not rocket surgery
…………………………§ Still hard but easier
…………………………§ Most businesses fail
………………………………………□ So why not try to be the next Google
…………………………§ Bad logic in his view
………………………………………□ Odds are not the same for barn burner … odds for a small niche product is better
…………………………§ Odds
………………………………………□ 1:10 is not facebook creation odds
………………………………………□ Example of relevance
……………………………………………………® 1:10 of making a million $
……………………………………………………® 1:10,000 for a billion $ business
…………………………§ Take better odds at smaller reward 1st … then go for the moon as the change in lifestyle from 0 to $1M and $1M to $1B is notable (the latter being small)
……………○ 4/21/2008, 11:52 AM
……………○ Example
…………………………§ 2000 customers
…………………………§ $40/month
…………………………§ 12 months
…………………………§ $1M year
…………………………§ 40,000 signups on trail … 5% conversion … 110 a day
…………………………§ …
…………………………§ What if you were happy @ $200k / yr = 400 customers @ $40/month
………………………………………□ BAUER COMMENT SO IT GETS EASER
……………○ 4/21/2008, 11:54 AM
……………○ Finding customers
…………………………§ Backpack
………………………………………□ Hard to get consumer to get people to pay
………………………………………□ Hard to establish business w/ that segment (consumer)
………………………………………□ Relaunch backpack 2 months ago … doubled the revenue by focusing on businesses
…………………………§ The Fortune 5,000,000
………………………………………□ The lifestyle business (mom & Pop store?)
………………………………………□ People make fun of that but he calls BS
………………………………………□ There is a lot of room in between
……………○ Craigslist
…………………………§ Without taking VC $ allows you to make the shots
…………………………§ Run @ your pace
…………………………§ $1M / yr … like no meetings
…………………………§ So its satisfying to not go for the brassring
…………………………§ Craig Newmark – $1B people are not happier
……………○ Good cause is incredibly hard and time consuming
…………………………§ Why flip business?
…………………………§ Enjoy it over 20 years
…………………………§ He questions the sell out startups … is it really the good life?
………………………………………□ Trade passion for meetings
……………○ 4/21/2008, 12:03 PM
……………○ This is not the movie industry
…………………………§ No need to dominate the box office
…………………………§ Solve small simple problems
…………………………§ Most of the great companies started small (200 companies)
…………………………§ Don’t Model after Facebook
……………○ VC Fuzz
…………………………§ Forget viral
…………………………§ Forget the overbaked ideas
…………………………§ Treat your customers nice and ask for $
……………○ Pressure to get started
…………………………§ People are selling stuff way before your idea
…………………………§ Sell it better
……………○ 4/21/2008, 12:06 PM
……………○ Basecamp
…………………………§ Developed w/ 3 people doing other stuff
…………………………§ Single server 1st year
…………………………§ Limited amount of time to work on something focuses your energy
…………………………§ He was contracting w/ 37 signals at this time … 10h/wk to develop basecamp
…………………………§ It makes the time really matter
…………………………§ Less time is a huge benefit
………………………………………□ BAUER COMMENT — Power comes from focus knowing value is each hour
…………………………§ Grew basecamp a year before you stopped doing consulting and just focused on basecamp
…………………………§ 7+ years for great businesses maybe longer
……………○ Don’t Overbuild
…………………………§ Deal with those issues later
……………○ Take it easy
…………………………§ There will never be less work
…………………………§ It will never be less
…………………………§ Amount of work in beginning creates more work
…………………………§ 14 hour days / 7 days a week … get out of that
…………………………§ Change the practices … or they will stick with you
……………○ 4/21/2008, 12:10 PM
……………○ Blame loss on someone else
……………○ 4/21/2008, 12:10 PM
……………○ Q&A
…………………………§ How does great achievement drive from small goals (i.e. how did Ruby on Rails happen)
………………………………………□ Solve simple problems. RoR was his effort to enjoy coding. Solve simple solution.
………………………………………□ Tons of VC come to them (RoR) .. .they say no … he uses RoR to build stuff … so he understands it …
………………………………………□ Solve simple problems that you are intimately involved with
…………………………§ What would you have done differently (BaseCamp, RoR)?
………………………………………□ Not much. Happy with results. Happy didn’t listen to give it away for free.
…………………………§ How many businesses are in the sweet spot of the fortune 5,000,000
………………………………………□ 500 to 1000 people … that is huge
………………………………………□ His focus
……………………………………………………® 3 people
……………………………………………………® 5 people
……………………………………………………® Guy doing something in his spare time
………………………………………□ Those people … want something that sounds like it works
…………………………§ The is no business too small for fortune 5,000,000
………………………………………□ Deal w/ people on monthly … you are not relying on 1 customer
………………………………………□ Big customers can yank your change
………………………………………□ Small customers but many you can control innovation
…………………………§ How stay focused
………………………………………□ How do you not get distracted … 10-14 hours a day
………………………………………□ Parent filter …
……………………………………………………® Joke
………………………………………□ Stop working in 14 hour a day … work 5 hours a day
………………………………………□ 37 signals is 4 day work weeks … 8 hrs a day … 2-3 hours productive
………………………………………□ Get 3 GREAT hours a day in

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