Judy Estrin (Author): The Four Keys of Innovation

Actually, Judy wrote a book titled “Close the Innovation Gap” but I was more taken by the four points she laid out as keys as they seemed so clear:

• Leadership
• Policy
• Culture
• Funding

I was impressed with her clarity of though on this subject.   This is no “Tim Ferris” marketing ploy1.  She did some hard research here and pulled out some very concise messages.

Details

Notable Points

Title/Link: Interview on “Close the Innovation Gap” Duration: ~35m Presenter: Judy Estrin Author Sits on Board of FedEx and Walt Disney (formerly Board member of Rockwell) Early researcher around protocols Various startups Recommend to Watch? Yes Strange, as I walked away I would of said ‘maybe’ but as I pondered what she said it moved to ‘yes’.   While not explosive, her points have staying power as you mull them over.

1. Leadership Around leadership, her point was how if the people who control the decisions to fund innovation don’t value it and understand why it stumbles we will continue to under fund it.  Case and point the US stance around innovation since 2000.  Respect for research and understanding the ecosystem it is a part of (research, development, application) is faltering.   See the next three points on why. 2. Policy Mostly she talked about Immigration here but examples of subsidies around clean energy that are occurring in Europe were also tossed around.   I recall a great TED talk that suggested a floor on gas prices that was higher than the cost of alternative fuels (to provide a stable market for R&D to target).   In addition she mentioned the locking away of federal research (stifles iterative innovation). 3. Culture Here she talked about children.   How under 5th grade there is little innovation into enabling children to tinker as we used to be able to do with our hands in the past. There are enablers (virtual CAD, etc) but we aren’t pushing that out and providing incentives to kids to grapple with those tools. 4. Funding Excellent point here.  How most of last eight years in US has shifted to short term returns.  Both for VC’s and Business R&D.  Innovation needs research for pure research sake that is tied to another ecosystem (development and application) that can pick pieces from our efforts around “learning for learning sake”.  If you focus on an outcome you only get incremental not disruptive (new concept) innovation.

So if you are in business, or responsible for an area of a business I would ponder what she has to say..

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

1-Side comment on Ferris, I continue to read aspects of his book and ponder.  He did have some notable insights as well … just too much marketing oil for me.

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• Judy Estrin Author
• 9/5/2008, 6:40 AM Start
• Author
………………○ serial entrepreneur, worked on protocol w/ Stanford, CTO Cisco for 2 years, PackageDesign,
………………○ Thinking about innovation on 2004
• Complex for a set of reasons
………………○ Incremental innovation
………………○ Disruptive
………………○ Disruptive but not breakthrough (ipod, not genetic engineering)
• Its an ecosystem
………………○ Research community – furthers understanding
………………○ Dev comm – builds
………………○ App comm – Applies
………………○ Google example – Algorithm –> Product –> Execution (innovated in all areas)
………………○ 9/5/2008, 6:45 AM Energy example
• 9/5/2008, 6:45 AM — Where are we (US)
………………○ Sits on board of FedEx and Walt Disney
………………○ Valley is more risk averse … as is large corporations … so incremental innovation focus
………………○ Talked to — Tech, Educators, Policy, Life Science, Etc
………………○ Found – – Policy problem
………………………………§ Innovation gap in last 8 years … over harvested in last 8 years
………………………………§ Most interesting things are based on disruptors that are 10-20 years old
………………………………§ Became more short term focused in the way funding worked … not funding lab work. After 2000 acute in % of spend. Respect for science. Listening to science.
………………………………§ Kids — not inspired to be science / tech
• 9/5/2008, 6:50 AM Kids
………………○ Not inspired to learn how things work
………………○ Bauer Comment – wouldn’t it be interesting to allow kids to virtually break down and assemble the pieces of things. Like CAD/CAM light.
………………○ Can’t tinker today
• 9/5/2008, 6:52 AM Can do
………………○ Virtual worlds
………………………………§ Bauer Comment – Amusing. She and I think about it
• 9/5/2008, 6:53 AM Education
………………○ US are more anti-immigrant
………………○ Lower class focus (like Mexico) to block
………………○ Harder for US Foreign Nationals to stay here (Israel)
………………○ Her response
………………………………§ Great upper ed
………………………………§ But policy of immigration got clamped down when we needed to expand
………………………………………………□ Bauer Comment – Ouch for the us nationals (supply and demand) in tech sector
………………………………§ Need to be able to: Risk, Be Open, Patience, Self Assess, Trust
………………………………§ Need a balance of the above … enough to be real …
………………………………§ Innovation is not zero sum … US vs China … no … but if US doesn’t innovate with them we are toast
………………………………§ Two things hurt innovation — Policy (immigration) and Classification of Federal Research
………………○ Google doesn’t share as much research
………………………………§ They help by open up aspects of their source
………………○ MSFT Research … give a lot of credit of becoming more open
• 9/5/2008, 6:55 What is the difference between research and Dev
………………○ Research about furthering understanding. No outcome. Applied research is constrained to a problem. Usage research with consideration of application.
………………○ Development is building something
………………○ Disruptive research is unclear … ie dustbuster came from moon program
………………○ Tendancy today is too much of “how is this used”,
………………○ 9/5/2008, 7:03 AM Solar Energy example …. Wants VC to have more patience
………………………………§ Bauer Comment – Patience will only occur with payback models they can see that are better odds or multiples than today.
………………………………§ Scoble points out market for energy in Europe
• 9/5/2008, 7:05 AM Leadership, Policy, Culture, Funding
………………○ Impacts to innovation
………………○ Same inside company and outside of company
………………………………§ Bauer Comment – Cockroach model enables innovation due to reducing financial requirements
• 9/5/2008, 7:07 AM Talk of Government Innovation
………………○ Afraid of government not google
………………○ Candidate runs on create change
………………○ Middle ground of government and free markets
………………○ Gov, Business, and Non-Profits need to address problems
………………○ Markets are too short term focused so they can’t solve this
………………………………§ Bauer Comment – Which is why floors on types of energy, as an example, are key to R&D
• 9/5/2008, 7:10 AM How people help
………………○ Create innovative environments
………………○ Think long term
………………○ Talk about longer term problems
………………○ Wrote book to escalate dialog around this
• 9/5/2008, 7:12 AM Solutions of Long Tail
………………○ Can’t procrastinate
………………○ Pick small battles that help … don’t try to win the war
………………………………§ Bauer Comment – Similar to startups, daily battles are the key … not the scoreboard on a given day.
• 9/5/2008, 7:13 AM Is there hope?
………………○ You can be fooled by the valley … they are just a part of the US innovation need
………………○ The rest of historical US isn’t holding line
………………○ However, there is hope

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PaaS (Longjump): The Glory (?) Of Centralized Computing

The mainframe wasn’t that bad … was it? That is the question the CEO of LongJump wants you to ponder.   I was curious on how deeply he would talk about why we moved off centralized computing in the 90’s and why those drivers are solved now (enabling Platform as a Service aka PaaS) so I spun it up. As always … notes and highlights below …

Details Notable Points Title/Link: WorkFastTV Interview Duration: ~30m Interviewee: Pankaj Malviya Started with CRM solution in 2003 (ala SFDC) called “Relationals, Inc”.  Refocused it on PaaS in 2007. Recommend to Watch? Maybe Much marketing buzz in this interview and very little notable facts that could compel you to PaaS.  However could give you a good overview if you haven’t pondered PaaS too much. 1.  PaaS = Portal?   If so … trouble. If you listen to the 1st 15 minutes alot of value propositions made for PaaS are similar to Portal marketing angles.  This makes me uncomfortable because the value proposition of portals are still fuzzy in most organizations outside of the self service equation.  The worker organizing / tailoring their desktop has not arrived as a big driver (in my view). 2.  Longjump = SFDC?   If so, why not SFDC? I question why one would go with a PaaS provider like Longjump over SFDC.  I assume the pricing is lower.   Given SFDC’s R&D is notably more you would think the nuance and power of their feature stack would be better.  I can’t say for sure.  If you are thinking about Longjump seriously however I would consider that heavily.  Force.com is moving far more quickly to meet business needs. 3.  Why not the PaaS from AMZN or IBM?   Big is slow?  Is that bad? When poked about how this sounds like doing “Visual Basic” in the clouds (simple, decentralized) Pankaj pointed out how the larger enterprises are not agile and so someone like Longjump needs to be used for emerging solutions.   Interesting.  I ding the big battleships all the time, however, they are slow because they cannot run their customers out on an unproven solution.  So, I would hesitate to jump on agile upstarts just because they have a handful of features larger players do not.  It would be better to evolve those missing pieces on the backbone of the larger player and evolve with them (versus against). 4.  The elephant in the room — Lock In. The problem with PaaS providers right now is that to move on to their stacks you give up choice (outside of manually rebuilding).  You cannot easily move applications from one vendor to another (hardware or software).  This is no different than a ERP commmitment the difference is the PaaS providers are less mature so its a more notable risk.  If you don’t like how it works … you are up the river.

Given all the above I am still a big PaaS fan.  Many of the clients I server are leveraging it for non-critical applications as Pankaj points out.  However, I am not sold the best path to PaaS is a small upstart.  I would think smaller bets with SFDC, AMZN, IBM, MSFT would be wiser.  Otherwise there are high odds you will be unravelling proprietary applications 3-4 years from now.

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

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• http://www.fastcompany.tv/video/paas-provider-longjump
Thursday, August 14th, 2008
• Longjump has built an enterprise applications development platform (among other things, you’ll see it does quite a bit). We’ll meet Longjump’s CEO, Pankaj Malviya, who’ll tell us what he’s learned about how business is changing due to online tools like Longjump and we’ll get a look at why Longjump is attracting attention inside enterprises.
• 9/2/2008, 7:09 AM
• 9/2/2008, 7:10 AM Talked to Scoble a year ago
• 9/2/2008, 7:11 AM Scoble – Trends?
…………….○ Longjump CEO –
…………….○ Return to centralized computing (cloud computing, PaaS)
…………….○ Not about ERP (mission critical items, that is done … about web app dev build. Corp IT focuses on non-web critical apps. Longjump helpse
…………….○ Examples – Localization project.
• 9/2/2008, 7:16 AM Scoble – What is app dev trends
…………….○ Longjump CEO – Applications delivered in personalized way
…………….○ Bauer Comment – sounds like the portal pitch
…………….○ “Interface to see information they want to see, create reports, deploy business processes on it”
• 9/2/2008, 7:18 AM Scoble – What are the choices for a CIO
…………….○ L CEO –
…………….○ Bungee – dev focus; AMZN – plat focus
…………….○ Longjump – does all three aspects
…………….○ Bauer Comment – Differences vs SFDC? Not many and I doubt same level of R&D by SFDC has been done by Longjump
…………….○ “Give us your #4 app and we will deliver in 4 days”
…………….○ (acknowledges and ‘force.com”)
…………….○ Their difference is they are focused in PaaS … 5 years on the job
…………….○ Use this platform for long tail of IT system needs
• 9/2/2008, 7:21 AM Scoble – Why do this (why did you start)
…………….○ The recreation of the wheel on every system
…………….○ 2003 Launched CRM; 2007 pushed out PaaS
…………………………..§ Bauer Comment – again similar to SFDC (same origins)
• 9/2/2008, 7:22 AM Scobe – What has changed
…………….○ Landscape changing … no silos … more integration
…………….○ Workforce is demanding personalization
…………………………..§ Bauer Comment – where is the proof of this … same was said w/ portals
• 9/2/2008, 7:23 AM Scoble why is SFDC doing well
…………….○ Nothing notable (bauer
• 9/2/2008, 7:24 AM Scoble – Fee model?
…………….○ Subscription per user
…………….○ Bauer Comment – Lock in, How do you get app out of PaaS to internally owned?
• 9/2/2008, 7:25 AM Scoble – How long to learn to build in system
…………….○ Click not Code
…………….○ 90%
…………….○ Then you can code in java (adjust the generated programs). VB, Excel, programmers can come here.
…………….○ SOAP/REST based
• 9/2/2008, 7:26 AM Scoble – Integrate apps into Longjump (how port)
…………….○ Manual port
…………….○ Example of port in 3 days (show results in 3 days)
…………………………..§ Bauer – The promise here is generic “I”ll show you results”. The nuance of processes in existing systems is typically the rarely used scenarios (20%).
• 9/2/2008, 7:27 AM Scoble – Mobile?
…………….○ Excited by iphone, working on it
• 9/2/2008, 7:28 AM Scoble – Built on?
…………….○ Java, XML, mysql … server is custom (XML based app server)
…………………………..§ Bauer Comment – there is the proprietary lock in
• 9/2/2008, 7:29 AM Scoble – Can I control the data? Can I source parts to the cloud
…………….○ Companies want private clouds. VLANs by company for company.
• 9/2/2008, 7:30 AM Scoble data center setup
…………….○ Rackspace, out of San Antonio, TX
…………….○ Core compentency … focus … not infrastructure
• 9/2/2008, 7:31 AM Scoble – what else are you hearing around pain points
…………….○ Shift in enterprise IT landscape … SaaS big change
• 9/2/2008, 7:32 AM PaaS vs SaaS
…………….○ SaaS … is about one function or app
…………….○ PaaS — Provides a foundation to build multiple apps
…………………………..§ All apps can talk to one another
…………………………..§ Centralized (customer, etc)
• 9/2/2008, 7:33 AM Scoble – Sounds like VB for the cloud
…………….○ Big corps are not agile in learning new things
…………………………..§ Bauer Comment – in a way here he is dismissing how tactical concerns of users are key to big companies … they don’t jump because its not as easy to hit all scenarios as this CEO is implying
• 9/2/2008, 7:34 AM – Scoble
…………….○ Created – Integrators, Report Engines, Validation Engines
…………………………..§ Bauer Comment – SFDC does this as well probably better
…………….○ Bootstrapped themselves … so no VC $ … not about $ … are you building an app that can make companies have ROI
…………….○ Now 500 customers
…………….○ Customer centric approach
…………………………..§ Bauer Comment – wonder if they have gone to customer centric selling?
• 9/2/2008, 7:37 AM Scoble – Flip?
…………….○ VC pressures … hire sales … too soon … push product out too soon
…………….○ Get > 3 customers (reference) prior to asking for VC funding
…………….○ Have to solve issues no one else is wrestling … a core problem
• 9/2/2008, 7:38 AM Scoble – Team
…………….○ 95% in SV
…………….○ 5 people in India
…………….○ Most are engineers
• 9/2/2008, 7:39 AM – Remote Team Learnings
…………….○ Today 7X24 … big change … can cost on lifestyle
…………….○ Collaborative systems
…………….○ Tools used – WIKI platform (add to email and phone)
…………….○ Collaboration sharing is tuff … figure it out before global teams
• 9/2/2008, 7:40 AM
…………….○ End
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Tim Ferriss (4hr Work Week): Hype or Notable?

I don’t have a “spidey sense” but something bugs me about a guy that seems to be able to do all kinds of cool stuff like winning a kickboxing championship and setting a world record on tango dancing on Regis & Kelly:

Granted he was tricky in those two as (1) he dropped 30 pounds via dehydration and then shoved the lighter kickboxing opponents out of the ring and (2) the tango record was twirls in a minute and all that was needed was > 27.

Anyway, he leaned less on nuance on more on his strengths when he wrote his book on how to be more productive.  If you don’t know who I am talking about it’s Tim Ferriss.  I am currently reading his book “The 4 Hour Work Week” and when I saw Scoble had a 30 minute chat with him I wanted to get a sense of the guy to see if my weird vibe had any basis.

Details

Notable Points

Title/Link: Scoble/Shel w/ Ferriss On Four Hour Work Week Duration: ~30m Interviewee: Tim Ferriss People say he specializes in self promotion.  Perhaps.  However, he tells a good story around retuning what you do with time in his book. Recommend to Watch? No The points are weak reflection of the book.  If you haven’t read it, I don’t think you will walk away with anything actionalble.

1. Income Has No Value, Without Time Interesting point by Mr. Ferris.  We can slave away 40 to 80 hours a week but if we don’t have time each week to invest what we gain back into ourselves … what is the point? 2. Busyness Is A Form of Lazyness (paraphrased) Guilty.  But how observant of Tim that we all lie to ourselves about how busy we are … when in reality we are filling time with the unimpoprtant in many cases. 3.  Checking Email To Simulate Forward Motion And there is the drug we don’t even see.   We have 5 minutes to fill.  Check email.  Surf the web.  1 hour gone.   All things that could of not be done or, in large part, delegated filtered by an assistant. 4.  Patient for Revenue, Impatient For Profit Intereting clarification from the cockroach model for startups (no flash, survive, wait for moment).   While you are doing that you should be modelling your costs against your revenue and flexing your plan to grow to profit sooner versus later.  Profit is the name of the game.  Not revenue.

So, after thinking about it awhile … I think the Ferris guys bugs me because he is managing his time more effectively than me … and he is pointing out some of my actual time sinks.  I hate that.   So, if you can get past him calling a spade a spade, his book is a good read for those striving to improve on how they use their time and the impact it creates.   Color me in.

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

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• 7/23/2008, 5:58 AM SAP Sponsor
• Shel and Robert
• Ferris
…………..○ Holder of records
……………………….§ Tango twirls
……………………….
…………..○ Bauer Comment – What has he done of notable complexity w/o tricks?
…………..○ BrainQuicken = 40k a month revenue is his company
• 7/23/2008, 6:00 AM
• Strange that Robert and Shel are there
• What triggered his 4hr work week
…………..○ 7/23/2008, 6:01 AM
…………..○ 2004 7am to 9pm work week
…………..○ “Income has no value without time”
…………..○ Went to London 4 weeks … tested his email model … answering only 2 times a day
……………………….§ Move to less reactive on emails
……………………….§ No intention writing the book
• How much depends on internet
…………..○ Bauer Comment – Shel / Scoble interaction improves … alternating questions
…………..○ 7/23/2008, 6:04 AM
…………..○ Google docs for rules to assistant on parsing, eLance, Skype are tools he used
…………..○ Assistant would boil down his email to 10 minutes of action items a day
…………..○ Cost and practicality driven by internet
…………..○ Depends on tools being used by another place (i.e. low cost area like India)
• Chat rooms say Ferriss is a hoax. Give a example of corporate to 4hr week
…………..○ Get high value for work put in
…………..○ Core of book is decrease inputs, increase outputs … 4hrs/week is marketing
…………..○ Check email 2 times a day (1 chapter)
…………..○ Personal outsourcing (1 chapter)
…………..○ Premises of book (core)
……………………….§ Objective is not busyness … massive action w/o tie to strategy is form of lazy
……………………….§ Retirement planning today is flawed (todays model for corporate environment)
…………..○ Personal outsourcing
……………………….§ I have boss cant do it (excuse)
……………………….§ Check email to simulate forward motion
……………………….§ Email “AskSunday” calls to find a product that Is rare (Wii) and pay w/ credit card and then you pick up.
……………………….§ Look at value of your time … if you make 50/hr … by outsourcing you can get that hour back
…………..○ Goal is not inaction, its action on what you care about
• 7/23/2008, 6:12 AM
• Two cores from Shel in book
…………..○ Don’t get drowned in details of life … keep strategic view of life in play
…………..○ Use tools to help with that
…………..○ Very few people work less
• Robert – Concept share mentioned as email avoider tool
• 7/23/2008, 6:14 AM
…………..○ RescueTime … free program … accurate snapshot of how you are spending your time
…………..○ Sites …
…………..○ Bauer Comment – iMontorPC is another
…………..○ 1st step is being aware of where your time is going (like a diet w/ calories) … then hit the big consumer
…………..○ Driven people with free time … go back to email etc … to fill time
……………………….§ Bauer Comment – Wouldn’t task lists help with that redirect?
…………..○ Checking email … changes you from relaxation … but you never commit to focus … and not getting done … you are limbo … checking but not committing
• 7/23/2008, 6:17 AM
• Force life view to be different
…………..○ Lifehackers – Gina
……………………….§ MeTimer – Tracks browser use
……………………….§ Personal productivity is personal
……………………….§ Competing approaches …
……………………….§ 7 habits
……………………….§ David Allen – Bottom up (tactical to principle)
……………………….§ Ferris – Focus on removing big chunks
…………..○ Being effective, not efficiency in processing inputs
……………………….§ Task taking a lot of time doesn’t make it important
• 7/23/2008, 6:19 AM
• Stop stream watching, work on xyz work.
• 7/23/2008, 6:20 AM
• Different currencies
…………..○ Spent or invested
…………..○ Invest time … get compound return
……………………….§ So reading books, learning etc … could save a multiple of time is valid
• 7/23/2008, 6:20 AM
• Blog – Margin Manifesto For Startups
…………..○ Get to profit quickly
…………..○ Patient for Revenue, Impatient for Profit
…………..○ Peter Drucker. What gets measured gets managed
…………..○ Tech’s measure (wrongly) for sake for measuring
…………..○ Posted how moved to get to microphone
…………..○ Six metrics that matter
……………………….§ Track cost per acquisition
……………………….§ Lifetime value of a customer
……………………….§ Financial applications of 80/20 rule
……………………….§ Objective isn’t more customers, more employees
……………………….§ MORE PROFIT is objective
• 7/23/2008, 6:23 AM
• Q&A
…………..○ What do you do for living?
……………………….§ Publishing is not the path to riches
……………………….§ Living – Teach, Invest is primary revenue stream
……………………….§ Angel Investor in valley
…………..○ What invest in
……………………….§ Working models with companies w/ base in SF Bay area

Laptop Dead – Blog Down For A Bit

Seems my laptop couldn’t go on and died this past weekend.   Onsite visits to replace the motherboard were in vain (dead).  So it will have to be sent in (they suspect the CPU).  Excellent.

So, while I can run w/ a laptop … taking my scribble while I go is half the fun.  Therefore I’ll be holding off on posting till my rig returns … ETA 5-7 business days.

MSFT Search (Brad Goldberg): Brother Can You Spare a Search?

This discussion between Scoble and the head of Live Search at MSFT (Brad Goldberg) was rather uneventful so I am not going to do a typical full writeup. For those are still intrigued, here is the URL:

Link to Webcast

And a nice wordle.net tag cloud of the notes

Hope if helps

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http://www.fastcompany.tv/video/microsoft-search-will-it-use-mahalo-techniques-compete-with-google
Brad goldberg (GM of MSFT Search Business – Aka Windows Live Search)
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 5:37 AM
……………..○ Big announcement on cash back last week
……………..○ Query stats
…………………………….§ 40% queries unanswered
…………………………….§ 50% refined
……………..○ Targeted pages for key words
……………..○ Content … that is what they do well
……………..○ MSFT has ability – software, software @ scale, long term investment (ie servers)
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 5:40 AM
……………..○ Status
…………………………….§ 1st Goal … get relevant
…………………………….§ Quality of search – Believe it same across yahoo, google, msft
…………………………….§ Key goal how to get relevance high % on 1st page
…………………………….§ Up till now focused on basics of relevance
…………………………….§ Now cash base
……………………………………………□ 4 tasks in search
…………………………………………………………..® Entertain, buy, reference, navigation
……………………………………………□ Commercial focus … task basis
……………………………………………□ Niche focus
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 5:43 AM
……………..○ Other fundamentals – Speed, design, etc
…………………………….§ In the US, On par w/ relevance … in US … not outside of US
…………………………….§ UX – Biggest change in next 5 years (no change in last 5 years in industry)
……………………………………………□ Blended search
……………………………………………□ Universal search
……………………………………………□ Their advantage … not driven by AD $ … so they can take more risks
…………………………………………………………..® Bauer Comment – Google does limited A/B testing … not sure if that is accurate
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 5:46 AM
……………..○ Mobile, Local
…………………………….§ Two goals
……………………………………………□ PC Search
……………………………………………□ Mobile Search
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment – I am not sure if in the 5 year view this is a wise play
…………………………….§ Gas finder / prices
…………………………….§ Tell me – voice based search
…………………………….§ Two main mobile use cases
……………………………………………□ Mapping
……………………………………………□ Business information
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 5:47 AM
……………..○ How change the game? w/ Google.
…………………………….§ A few things
……………………………………………□ Great relevance
……………………………………………□ Commerce (i.e. cash back … reward for search behavior)
…………………………………………………………..® Bauer Comment – better use of their 3B $ they offered Yahoo … buy the eyeballs … a lot of market share is comfort … have to break that
……………………………………………□ Advertisers
…………………………………………………………..® Cost per action (defined by merchant) focus is ADS
…………………………………………………………..® Afraid of monopoloy … no choice (just google) … europe examples
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 5:51 AM
……………..○ Brand
…………………………….§ Took his dad 2 years (scoble) to switch from alta vista to MSFT
…………………………….§ Split search query types
……………………………………………□ Users are not aware (via toolbar embedded in PC or site) of engine
…………………………………………………………..® So they need a better search engine
…………………………………………………………..® HP deal last week as an example
…………………………………………………………..® Last few years not out there
……………………………………………□ Users are aware of search engine
…………………………………………………………..® Users only aware of google
…………………………………………………………..® Really they use 4 major engines
…………………………………………………………..® How create awareness
………………………………………………………………………….◊ Commercial search, cash back … provide reasons to try it on an ongoing business
………………………………………………………………………….◊ Then drive awareness (homepage, OEM, marketing)
………………………………………………………………………….◊ How much engagement (return usage)
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment – They need to run a lotto … ticket per search … gaming it would be a problem
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 5:54 AM
……………..○ People search
…………………………….§ How to integrate to search experience as social networks emerge and people want to find people
…………………………….§ Most of experience on people search is hard (per him)
……………………………………………□ Bauer Comment – Disagree … if you know 1-3 things about the person … you have a pretty good lock in on google
…………………………….§ Facebook … walled garden … does MSFT’s 10% stake give them special access?
……………………………………………□ Bauer Comment there is a ok result on facebook profiles
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 5:57 AM
……………..○ Media search … hard to get results that are media
…………………………….§ Two pieces to that
……………………………………………□ Video search
…………………………………………………………..® Built a browser summary of a video … quickly navigate from a set of videos
…………………………………………………………..® How create traffic … search on videos link
………………………………………………………………………….◊ Bauer Comment – Really they need one search … that dynamically adjusts
………………………………………………………………………….◊ Scoble agrees w/ that point
…………………………………………………………..® At some point there will be break through on UX to get image search going
………………………………………………………………………….◊ Bauer Comment – agree that image search on google works for me
…………………………………………………………..® Not that exciting if you don’t change the UX based on content
……………………………………………□ Weather
…………………………………………………………..® Informational query (answer on 1st page)
…………………………………………………………..® Bauer Comment – Semantic search sounds probably here
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 6:01 AM
……………..○ Back to usability
……………………………………………□ All searches stop @ 1000 results (no matter how many hits they have
……………………………………………□ Over time … users will look on a task basis
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 6:01 AM
……………..○ Mahalo
…………………………….§ Whats experience been w/ that? (asking Scoble)
……………………………………………□ He answers Google, Yahoo, MSFT .. Not satisfying wants a portal
……………………………………………□ Better experience
……………………………………………□ Head oriented query
…………………………….§ Doesn’t scale even w/ crowdsourcing
…………………………….§ 2 Styles
……………………………………………□ Portals – Human programmed experience
……………………………………………□ Search – Algorithmic result
……………………………………………□ Bauer Comment – Good point … he knows the focus of his tool … MSN is the portal
……………………………………………□ Bauer Comment – Google’s style of search types might be the wisest … blog, image, news, etc … basically categorizing pages by style of author … you get a better sense of where to present that (or allow user to choose)
…………………………….§ Ideal model has mix of algorithmic + programmatic
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 6:05 AM
……………..○ Friendfeed push
…………………………….§ New data type … activity streams
…………………………….§ Friendfeed indexes real time
…………………………….§ Google, MSFT … indexes hourly … so cutting edge focus
…………………………….§ What was your experience w/ that (his ? To scoble)
……………………………………………□ Good. For real time.
…………………………….§ How much will users segment searches by search portal focus
……………………………………………□ Friend feed – current breaking news
……………………………………………□ Mahalo – Trips
……………………………………………□ MSFT –
……………………………………………□ Google
……………………………………………□ Paid views for search … increasing focus on navigation … not discovery … sites become primary way to find other sites
……………..○ 6/16/2008, 6:08 AM
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Mike Agnich (Predictify): Wisdom IN the Crowd

When I watched this webcast around Predictify, I recalled a great scene in the movie Princess Bride where Vizzini, the criminal mastermind, loses a “battle of wits” to the Man In Black, the hero, when posed the life or death question:

Which cup is poisoned?

Vizzini’s dizzying reasoning (leading to his death) is a perfect example on why Wisdom of the Crowds (WotC) is becoming popular. With just our wetware to help us we tend to mess up in two primary ways:

• We don’t analyze all the possibilities
• We don’t weight the ones we do see properly

Vizzini’s deductive tailspin was a perfect example. About halfway through he mentions an angle that would lead him to the right answer … “you could have put the poison in your own goblet” … but then skips on to other options. A crowd of smart people might have helped him pause there and explore / weight that option better. Really it’s very similar to ‘Poll the Audience’ or ‘Phone a Friend’ (ala the game show Who Wants to be a Millionaire?). This webcast talks about a how Predictify, a WotC player, takes this problem solving style up a notch. So if you are curious on how your friends, the audience, and Regis Philbin could help your business … this webcast is for you.

Details

Notable Points

Title/Link: Using Crowds To Predict Outcomes Duration: ~30m Presenter: Mike Agnich CTO @ Zazzle (custom screen print store) before Predictify. 2000 Grad from Stanford. Recommend to Watch? Yes This one warms up about 15 minutes in to hint at new ways (to me) that WotC can be applied for business. For that alone its a worthy listen.

1. The Weakness in Wisdom of the Crowds? Niche Hard to get a crowd answer for a niche segment that doesn’t amuse the broad spectrum of consumers. However, Predictify begins to hint at solving this. 2. Switch To “Wisdom IN the Crowd” My words but Mike hints at this. In WotC solutions it is easy to lose sight of the right answer (ala Vizzini) due to the noise of all the possibilities. This is compounded by the fact that the crowd, like most crowds, is made up of people that do really good in some categories but horrible in others. The crowd might not have a clear (or right) answer in aggregate but the wisdom is IN there. You just have to find it. 3. If You Say “Crowd” … Shouldn’t You Think “Marketing”? This was the best point, I thought. To date people use WotC solutions to get perspective on problems. However, if you look at it from another viewpoint its a variant of social networks. People getting together doing what they like to do … debating questions of the day. Fighting to earn the reputation of being the next great Kreskin in their niche of the world. The companies that facilitate that process (soliciting, tracking predictions) get the power of continual relationship and subliminal messaging to those power customers. That is an excellent marketing angle no matter where you come from.

Read the detail scribble below for more aspects … segmentation of answers by demographic, branded pages on their servers, etc. Predictify is taking an exciting space and adding even more excitment.

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

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crowd sourcing, game, Mike Agnich, predictions, Web 2.0
• http://www.fastcompany.tv/video/using-crowds-predict-outcomes-predictify
• 6/12/2008, 6:33 AM
• Mike Agnich
• Web is old information … how to provide forward looking information
• Sports, Stocks, Pop , Business, Politics … Various questions studies
……………..○ Bauer Comment – So limited to questions that masses have opinions on
• Focus questions into style of asking measurable events
• Some people predict better
• Track who can predict better than others …
……………..○ Bauer Comment – more interesting, finding the kreskin(s) in the crowd
……………..○ They group / evolve people into bands of experience beginners, apprentices
• 6/12/2008, 6:39 AM
• MSFT Example
……………..○ Key is picking gem commentary from haystack
……………..○ Anonymous commentary
• How measure right answer.
……………..○ Market, Sportsline,
• 6/12/2008, 6:41 AM
• Incentive system
……………..○ Reputation building
……………..○ Competition (W/L record)
……………..○ Premium questions (paid for)
…………………………….§ Two types of questions – free and pay-for
…………………………….§ Pay-for pays for right answer
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment – Similar to that one company that presented @ TED
……………..○ 4 times as much $ if you are right
• ? Sponsorer Get Additional Data
……………..○ Demographics
……………..○ Level of historical accuracy
……………..○ Age, Gender
……………..○ Customer segmentation inline w/ marketing
• 6/12/2008, 6:44 AM
• Commentary by racial lines for politics
• Key is that the outlier answers fall away leaving the right answer
• 6/12/2008, 6:45 AM
• How big does the community need to be for good accuracy
……………..○ Depends on ? Style (statistics)
…………………………….§ Binary question (Y/N) is harder to lock in
……………………………………………□ Bauer Comment – Interesting, so Y/N isn’t really too telling as the guess noise creeps in
……………..○ 1000 I a good rule of thumb
• 6/12/2008, 6:46 AM
• Elections have helped w/ his demographics
……………..○ Age spread is good
……………..○ More Male than Female
……………..○ Questions on site is cerebral … so mature crowd
• 6/12/2008, 6:47 AM
• Linking to Facebook? To grow demographics?
……………..○ How expand / integrate to other social sites being reviewed
……………..○ Need open networks
• 6/12/2008, 6:48 AM
• Free service
• Mobile client?
……………..○ Bauer Comment – Not specifically answered
• Email contact types (them to users)
……………..○ Bauer Comment – Not a clear answer
• 6/12/2008, 6:49 AM
• Vegas Line … Bad Indicator
……………..○ Not saying what will happen …. Says what will make $
……………..○ Frame questions on not ‘who you want to win’ … rather … ‘who will win’ … try to separate person from the question … ‘what do you think will happen’
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment – so question style is key to elicit good stats … separation of personal bias … focus on attributes that drive the answer
• 6/12/2008, 6:51 AM
• Demo
……………..○ Image
……………..○
……………..○ High Level of comments … 2 comments per 3 logins
…………………………….§ Opportunity to think
……………..○ Example is one where Obama / Clinton debate will resolve
……………..○ Graph types
…………………………….§ Scatterplot
…………………………….§ Histogram
……………..○ Filter by types of predictor (their historical accuracy) … regraph
……………..○ Filter by demographic type
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment – real time rendering of graphing
……………..○ Free question … See level of expertise filter only
……………..○ Don’t talk about sponsor of ?’s (Scoble asked)
……………..○ Market research use … primary focus … consumer product companies … companies like Coke, Pepsi, Phizer, GM … those are the targets … companies trying to get people engaged to their brand online
……………..○ Engagement Advertising
…………………………….§ Move – Post trailer
…………………………….§ Sponsor … Don’t care about results … just trying to build brand
…………………………….§ Bauer Comment – Interesting. Instead of social network based competition … go for engagement marketing
…………………………….§ In pilot stage w/ a few companies on that angle
…………………………….§ 6/12/2008, 6:58 AM
…………………………….§ Deeper than just a poll question … allow broader answer and interaction with group responding … comments, filters, etc
……………..○ 6/12/2008, 6:59 AM
……………..○ Track friends and what they are predicting
……………..○ Widget for blogs sharing predictions
…………………………….§ They see a more compelling model
…………………………….§ Platform. 5 minutes. Create a branded page. Customize questions. Leaderboard. Etc.
……………………………………………□ Bauer Comment – Bad. UX wise people hit one page on a blog.
…………………………….§ They are working with Mashable to create a ‘question’ page on product launches … etc
…………………………….§ Scoble … wants to cross compare blogs
…………………………….§ Photoshop .. Put graphs next to each other
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Semantic Web (Spivack): Nova Lays Down 101 On Semantic

I bumped into this webcast from others referencing it as a ‘must watch’ from NextWeb 2008. So, while I had sworn off pondering semantics for awhile (too early for most clients) I decided I should check it out. I wasn’t disappointed. Nova Spivack (CEO of Twine) gave the best 101 on Semantic I have seen: Five approaches to add/infer semantic data How semantic enables JIT database models How semantic enables part of the “Web as an OS” dream Where we are now, where we are going Q&A and moreAs usual, the keys I saw are below plus my usual raw scribble I took while running/watching this.

Details Notable Points Title/Link: NextWeb Presentation Slides (Excellent clarity & flow) Duration: ~45m Presenter: Nova Spivack AI focus (I knew I liked him for a reason), Co-Founded Earthweb which created DICE.com Recommend to Watch? Yes Put aside that he and I both agree this is early adopter material … you need to watch this to begin to get your head around it. If what he is saying shakes out … the tooling to enable semantic frameworks around data is 2-3 years away from prime time. That is just a blink (especially if you have kids). 1. Queue the “Circle Of Life” Song … Web 3.0 Returns Us To The Backend via Semantic Tools He made some excellent points on the cyclical nature of development focus and how Web 2.0 is all about the UI. The next wave, however, will refocus us on the backend and the catalyst for that will be the value semantic structures can bring to businesses (he has some great slides on that). Primarily he pointed to how documents and data exploding on the web making algorithmic search models like Google begin to be inefficient. 2.Not AI … AS (as in Artificial Stupidity) Perhaps a joke only a AI major would appreciate. His point was that AI can’t solve complex riddles like deriving semantic data for existing stuff. It can help but it is more of tool for the human mind to apply … than a machine you can delegate this task to. 3. Smart Data … Dumb Software Another good word play. Here he was talking about how enriching data with semantics can enable the applications that consume it to become dumber about the specifics of data (relationships between it, what it means). Instead all of the application focus can be on how to dynamic leverage data that is presented to it based on its associated semantics. I think his venture Twine is something along that front.

I’m am going to ask to get an invitation to the beta of Twine. From that I hope to get a better sense of what he is seeing here.

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

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• 6/6/2008, 6:11 AM
• Radar Networks – CEO – Nova Spivack
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Product called Twine
• Excellent article hitting topics –
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/25/is-keyword-search-about-to-hit-its-breaking-point/
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ http://thenextweb.org/2008/04/03/nova-spivack-the-semantic-web-as-an-open-and-less-evil-web/
• 6/6/2008, 6:12 AM
• Overview
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Stuff = Nouns
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Connections = Verbs
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Social Graph is subset of Semantic Graph
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Improves collab, integration of data, personalization, etc
• 6/6/2008, 6:15 AM
• Web 3.0
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Coming 3rd Decade of Web (till in 2.0)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Focus enrich structure of web
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ File Server to Database
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – nice slide showing evolution by web ‘waves’ (1, 2, 3, etc)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Pendulum from front end focus to a back end focus
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ 3.0 backend … 4.0 back to front end based on improved backend
• 6/6/2008, 6:18 AM
• Failure of search as data on web increases
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – another referenced graph that is solid (on his blog)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Solutions
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1. Tagging
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2. Natural language search
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3. Semantic (goes into understanding meaning of natural search)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,a. Keyword search is capped out
• 6/6/2008, 6:19 AM
• Five approaches to add / infer from data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1. Tagging
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1) Bad due to inconsistency between public taggers
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,a) Bauer Comment – he talk about how large data set can analyze the tags and reach a common definition of tags from the crowd (UX card sorting in mass)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2. Statistical Approach
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1) Google
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3. Linguistic Approach
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1) Understand meaning of text … rules, grammar, etc … read the text systemically
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2) Great but high CPU, hard to scale, language dependancies
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4. Semantic web
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1) Set of standards (open) make the semantic web (W3)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2) Semantic technologies
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,a) Express, infer meaning of things
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3) Meta Data … put into the data that describes meaning of data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4) Does w/ open standards
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5) Problems — Hard to scale, who makes all this meta-data on existing content
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5. Artificial Intelligence
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1) Decades away … Cycorp in US … 15 years manually keying human knowledge
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2) Wikipedia – AI on top might do better keeping up w/ human consensus
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3) Huge in 4.0 …. But far away
• 6/6/2008, 6:24 AM
• How to compare add/infer data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Software smarter
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Data smarter
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ AI is both
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Semantic web is in the middle
• 6/6/2008, 6:26 AM
• Two paths
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Manual – RDF, L … too hard
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Top down – Automatically generating … from content .. More practical
• Twine
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Use RDF … top down
• Make a higher resolution web as each piece of data carries more information about it
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Types (person, city)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Relationship (like ‘lives in’)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Google is just pages / links
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – Key becomes normalizing, in effect, static content via verbs and nouns descriptions
• Bauer Comment – Between websites imply global nouns
• Smart data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Enables dumb software …. To become smart via the enriched data
• Applications evolve that read semantic data and are independent of vertical (health, etc)
• He wants to not use AI … use AS (Artificial Stupidity)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – good word play … helps clarify role of machine in complex decision chain
• 6/6/2008, 6:31 AM
• JIT in time data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Semantic web pulls in just when needed
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Problem in past way communicating schema (i.e. XML, DDL)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Semantic web … does it via an entology … a page on web … makes sense of data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – sounds like XML to me
• 6/6/2008, 6:33 AM
• Making the web an OS
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ File system aspect could be based on semantic
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – How does MESH play into this … or similar
• Open – Ontologies, Rules, Data Records, Data Mappings, Query Interface,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Bauer Comment – Key break down of basic semantic framework
• Standards
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ OWL – Built on RDF … more expressive schemas
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ SWIRL – Rules Language
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Griddle – Transform data
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Sparkle – Another RDF solution
• 6/6/2008, 6:36 AM
• Basic Unit of Data in Semantic Web
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Triple – Subject , Predicate, Object (susan, works for, IBM)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ URI – Points to location on web with further information on each piece (for the triple) …
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – Linking database definitions or file definitions cross site
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Then link data records – create open database
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Better term “Data Web”
• 6/6/2008, 6:39 AM
• Table isn’t how we think
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ List of triples … but lists get really REALLY long … talking billions
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Vomits a DB to stick triples in DB
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Solve this via ‘Triple Store” … new DB designed for this
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Easier to maintain
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ List A + List B = List C
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,□ Bauer Comment – Hello VSAM
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Form and Dissolve database relationship structure
• 6/6/2008, 6:41 AM
• Linked data universe
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Number of ontologies cover various Ontologies
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Reviews, Music, Communities, etc
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – Open XML standards are similar
• 6/6/2008, 6:42 AM
• Right now
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Early adoption period
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ A lot of momentum in developers … early applications like Twine
• Focus today is how to become more open
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Data portability project
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Semantic web enables portability
• Very hard … no tools
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Two examples
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ FOOF – Friend of Friend
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Shock – Sharing forums
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ API’s get more open in next year
• Twine
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ TO get into beta — nova@radarnetworks.com nextweb2008 twine
• Q&A
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ 6/6/2008, 6:47 AM
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Economic consequences of this? New business models? Theme.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Semantic web doesn’t create new business models. Just makes existing ones better.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – Better can be disruption for existing players that don’t change
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Example of new player – Singechay (sp?) … semantic commerce, ads, etc
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Open standards … enable?
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Semantic web … can you use it to lock in users?
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Technically if you use the open standards … it is easier (in his view)
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Focus more on value creation … not lock in
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Trick to lock in … make your own Ontology … stuck in your system
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Reason web succeeded was simple … Semantic web isn’t
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Key question is how long did WWW take to get defined … 15 years
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ We typically think of explosion point in early 90’s
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Get to point of ‘easier’ to use
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Gap is tools for Semantic web … estimate 1st wave 12-18 months … twine is open up hosted development tools
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Semantic requires definitions of objects and relationships… how get agreement
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – Whispering in background about ‘free beers at door’ … hehe
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Semantic web designed for disagreement
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Good but many definitions
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – Similar to MLS in real estate market
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Built into standard you can map across Onotologies
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Anyone can make associations … community driven …
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Bauer Comment – so the walls come down via crowd
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,○ Amazed on how quickly google tagged images online
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Twine is doing same .
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Social network for sharing knowledge … discover around interest
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Add information auto tags
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Learn and make recommendations
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Open more in summer / fall
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,§ Tries to automate RDF setup
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What Matters (Pausch) — What Creates Focus

Given I spend so much of my life heads down I try to periodically look up and listen to speakers on the subject of the purpose of work and life as a whole. Randy Pausch, author of the best seller Last Lecture, is my most recent counsel on that front. You see, Randy Pausch was given six months to live back in late 2007, but has used that time as a platform to demonstrate how to live life … even in the face of death. So, when I noticed that Randy was giving the ‘charge’ to the current graduating class of Carnegie Mellon I thought: I wonder how he is doing. More importantly, what is he thinking. As usual, Randy didn’t let me down. My thoughts … on his thoughts … below (and detail notes of course).

Details Notable Points Title/Link: 5/18/08 Address 9/21/08 – Good Morning America Interview (best summary) 9/18/08 – The Last Lecture Duration: ~5m ~10m ~85m Presenter: Randy Pausch Professor @ Carnegie Mellon specializing in Virtual Worlds Recommend to Watch? Yes Specifically I would watch the ABC summary clip. It summarizes his key points well from the 9/18 lecture that started it all. Then the 5/18 address as I think it was on of his better insights (and new). The lecture itself is probably something you want to skim the notes on. 1. We don’t beat the reaper by living longer … We beat him by living well This was his best point. Today’s society is so focused on how long we can live and not so much on what it means to live well. Really that is what matters. 2.It isn’t what you DID that bothers you on your death bed, it’s what you DIDN’T I know personally there are things I hope to chase and haven’t … 3. Find Your Passion … In People Randy points out that passion focused around things and/or money is a slippery slope. Both are easily measured and others will always have more leading to a life of chasing what can never be attained as the target is always moving. However, your passion will always be yours and attainable. More interestingly, as you discover your passion you find it is intricately interwoven in people. In relationships. These relationships are also attainable and rewarding. Especially when they are founded on respect and true love for one another. 4. What Focuses I notated in the title “What focuses” because it intrigues me how I didn’t know Randy Pausch before he became terminally ill … but I should have. Its interesting how I (and people in general) allocate attention when death is involved. Would we have listened to Randy’s words if he wasn’t dying? I don’t think I would have as it would of been similar to so many voices on the subject. But, similar to Tuesday’s With Morrie and My Life, when the speaker is clearly dying … a ring of truth arises … an aura of focus. And rightly so. My (our) increased focus on Randy due to his situation is actually a corollary to our lives in total. His situation is our situation. We are all dying. And when we realize our time is finite we become inspired/focused on how to live it ‘well’ to Randy’s first point. Wouldn’t it be great if we had such focus all the time?

Moving on, I think the last ‘notable point’ above is the point I am taking forward to ponder more.

How do I maintain perspective on each the gift of each moment?.

If I can solve that for myself, I suspect I will be answer Randy’s challenge of living well when my time comes.

Would be curious on your thoughts … as always.

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Randy Pausch
83k views
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…………….○
…………….○ Randy Pausch addresses graduating class
…………….. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcYv5x6gZTA&feature=userhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcYv5x6gZTA&feature=user
…………….○ 6/5/2008, 7:07 AM
…………………………..§ Recap of his
…………………………………………□ He loves carnegie mellon
…………………………………………□ Cancer update … on month 9
…………………………..§ Beating Grim Reaper …
…………………………………………□ Don’t beat by living longer
…………………………………………□ Beat by living well
…………………………………………□ Reaper will come for all of us
…………………………………………□ Key is what you do between when you are born and when he shows up
…………………………………………□ Once he shows it is too late
…………………………..§ What we did isn’t what we regret … it what we didn’t do
…………………………………………□ From his view looking at his life
…………………………..§ Passion (find it)
…………………………………………□ It is never too late
…………………………………………□ Find it … follow it
…………………………………………□ Not in things …
…………………………………………□ Not in money …
…………………………………………□ In people
…………………………..§ To be thought well of by your peers is a tremendous honor
…………………………..§ So your passion will be grounded in people and the relationships and what they think of you
…………………………..§ Reference to late marriage being an indicator of passion for spouse … true love
…………………………………………□ Carries her off
…………….○
…………….○ Original “Last Lecture” Notes
…………….○

Druation 1:15
Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams
…………….○ 2.5 Million Viewers
…………….○ 3-6 months to live
…………….○ 6/4/2008, 6:11 AM
…………….○ Example of health … push ups … good shapes
…………….○ Not talking about
…………………………..§ Cancer, my wife/kids, spirituality/religion
…………………………..§ Did just buy a mac
…………………………..§ Bauer Comment – he is funny
…………….○ Todays Talk
…………………………..§ His dreams
…………………………..§ Enable dreams of others
…………………………..§ Lessons learned
…………….○ 6/4/2008, 6:13 AM
…………….○ Born in 1960 … 8 years old on moon landing
…………….○ Inspiration to dream
…………….○ His dream
…………………………..§ Zero gravity, Playing in NFL, World Book Author, Captain Kirk, Stuffed Animals, Disney Imagineer
…………………………..§ Zero Gravity
…………………………………………□ Did the vomit comet
…………………………………………□ Got around rules by applying as a journalist
…………………………..§ NFL
…………………………………………□ Learned team … from Coach Jim Graham (sp?) … 22 guys … 1 guy w/ ball
…………………………………………□ Get fundamentals down
…………………………………………□ Coach riding him was a gift … bad place is when no one says anything as you screw up
…………………………………………□ Experience is what you get when you didn’t get what you wanted
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – Good point
…………………………………………□ Learn indirectly … head fake learning
…………………………..§ Article in World Book
…………………………………………□ Authored article for virtual reality
…………………………..§ Meeting Captain Kirk
…………………………………………□ Great role model
…………………………………………□ Not smartest guy (spock, scotty)
…………………………………………□ Leadership was his skill
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – Hard to measure … but interesting point … no love for Kirk
…………………………………………□ Met Kirk. Came to see their VR setup of red alert
…………………………………………□ Cool was his idol coming to see him
…………………………..§ 6/4/2008, 6:25 AM
…………………………..§ Winning Stuffed Animals
…………………………………………□ Won a lot of them
…………………………..§ 6/4/2008, 6:27 AM
…………………………..§ Being an Imagineer
…………………………………………□ For Disney
…………………………………………□ Hit brick wall
…………………………………………□ Point of brick walls is to stop people that don’t want it badly enough
…………………………………………□ So here is how he worked around it … VR on $5/day
…………………………………………□ Walt Disney … Denying VR … Aladdin Attraction … Gator Vision
……………………………………………………….® Brief secretary of Defense on VR
……………………………………………………….® Gave him excuse to meet Walt Disney use Sec Defense meeting … to see their setup
……………………………………………………….® 80 hours … talking to all experts in world … what to ask disney
……………………………………………………….® 2hr lunch w/ Jon Snody … Sabbatical coming up … asked to work w/ them
……………………………………………………….® Wait long enough …people will surprise and impress you
…………………………………………□ Dean @ Univ VA (Dean Wormer – Name not important)
……………………………………………………….® Clause on owning IP … told him to block it
……………………………………………………….® Unpaid leave of absence …
……………………………………………………….® Dean said wouldn’t allow that
……………………………………………………….® Got into pissing match … get out of it
……………………………………………………….® Redirect to dean of sponsored research
……………………………………………………….® He talked to him different “Star Prof, Want to Hear more”
…………………………………………□ Some brick walls are made of flesh
…………………………………………□ Charlie and Chocolate Factory
……………………………………………………….® Get everything you wanted … “Lives Happily Ever After”
…………………………………………□ How to put artist and engineers together
…………………………………………□ Turned down being a full time imagineer …
…………………………………………□ Instead became 1 day a week consultant
……………………………………………………….® Virtual Jungle Cruise
……………………………………………………….® Pirates of Caribbean best done
…………………………..§ 6/4/2008, 6:40 AM
…………………………..§ How enable dreams of others?
…………………………………………□ Professorship
…………………………………………□ Tommy … student … told him want to work on next star wars film (1993)
……………………………………………………….® Told him there wouldn’t be a sequel
……………………………………………………….® Tommy work on all 3 of the next films
…………………………………………□ Building virtual worlds (created a course)
…………………………………………□ Random teams … 4 wks … rebuild team … 5 projects a semester
…………………………………………□ Texture mapping, 3D graphics … was awesome
…………………………………………□ No violence, pornography … been done … stumped his male students
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – heh
…………………………………………□ Copied process from VR lab
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – interesting … 2 week sprints … rotate members
…………………………………………□ Students went beyond his expectations … he challenged them to do better
…………………………………………□ 6/4/2008, 6:48 AM
…………………………………………□ Example of hello world
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment … rather amusing at end
…………………………………………□ People would line up to register for his course
…………………………………………□ Favorite … roller skating ninja
……………………………………………………….® World crashed
……………………………………………………….® Pulled out ninja sword … “I am dishonored” die
……………………………………………………….® Teammates drag him off
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – Funny
…………………………………………□ Hard to hand stuff over … find someone better
…………………………..§ 6/4/2008, 6:55 AM
…………………………..§ The Dream Fulfillment Factory
…………………………………………□ Don marinelli (Drama), and him Randy Pausch (CS)
…………………………………………□ Entertainment Technology Center
…………………………………………□ 2 years masters degree … Masters of Entertainment Technology
…………………………………………□ 6/4/2008, 6:58 AM
…………………………………………□ A lot of talk of Don and his serious energy
…………………………………………□ Gives most credit to Don for ETC
…………………………………………□ All time spent making stuff … no book learning
…………………………………………□ 6/4/2008, 6:59 AM
…………………………………………□ No dean’s to report to … liscense to break mold … field trips … 50 students to pixar
…………………………………………□ Have 5 contracts from companies will hire students for summer internships
…………………………………………□ Focus Groups … Learning to Work In Groups
……………………………………………………….® Do peer feedback from each group on how your work style does
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – Great point … broad sample set
……………………………………………………….® Best gift of an educator … help people self reflect
…………………………..§ Alice Project
…………………………………………□ How to teach computer programming
…………………………………………□ Fake kids into learning to code … by helping them to learn code games /movies
…………………………………………□ Alice is his legacy
…………………………………………□ Java … next wave …. 2008 … v3.0 … using SIM characters
…………………………………………□ Wanda is who to email …
…………………………..§ 54min in
…………………………..§ Lessons Learned
…………………………………………□ Parents, Mentors, Students
…………………………………………□ Reflect on his parents
…………………………………………□ His remembers them as giving, fun, talented, etc
…………………………………………□ His dad got the bronze star for service in WWII … never told anyone (found it after he died)
……………………………………………………….® Bauer Comment – now that is a deep point …
…………………………………………□ Allowed him to paint his room
…………………………………………□ Andy van Dam
……………………………………………………….® Hi mentor
……………………………………………………….® Got him to go to grad school
……………………………………………………….® Dutch uncled him … told him his arrogance would limit him
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Bauer Comment – honesty from a peer
……………………………………………………….® Job advice was best … prof route for career
……………………………………………………….® Told him to use his sales skills selling education … not some widget
…………………………………………□ Best point of all time – student
……………………………………………………….® Why is alice I fun?
……………………………………………………….® Approach teaching as a story telling activity
…………………………………………□ Mentors counsel him to talk about fun
……………………………………………………….® He is having fun … even now
…………………………………………□ Are you tigger or eyore?
…………………………………………□ Never lose childlike wonder
…………………………………………□ Help others
……………………………………………………….® Working class roots
…………………………………………□ Kept his letterman jacket
……………………………………………………….® Shows it
…………………………………………□ Relationships
……………………………………………………….® Loyalty – 2 way street
……………………………………………………….® Student … has dean not liking him … he went in to vouch for him
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Put his tenure case on the line
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Bauer Comment – interesting job risked in favor of people and loyalty
……………………………………………………….® To assess people … ignore what they say … look at what they do
…………………………………………□ Never give up
……………………………………………………….® Never got into Brown University
……………………………………………………….® Carnegie Mellon turned him down … met w/ Dean (met w/ him)
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Bauer Comment – interesting … similar to dana
……………………………………………………….® Talked to Berkley and Cornell … not right
……………………………………………………….® So Dutch called
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Nico .. Allows to see him @ 8 a.m.
……………………………………………………………………………………► Why are we here?
……………………………………………………………………………………► He tried to show he has a fellowship … didn’t matter
……………………………………………………………………………………► Nico wanted to know why …
……………………………………………………………………………………► Key was know why you are blessed and say it
…………………………………………□ How get help from people
……………………………………………………….® Being honest … no hip … earnst
……………………………………………………….® Apologize when you screw up
……………………………………………………….® Focus on others
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Example brings out cake for his wife’s bday in lecture
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Sings b-day song (Jay)
…………………………………………□ Remember Brick Walls … Are there for those that don’t want the dream bad enough
…………………………………………□ Don’t bail … best gold at bottom of barrels of crap
……………………………………………………….® EA sabbatical story
……………………………………………………….® They were going to give funding to another company for Alice concept
…………………………………………□ Get a feedback loop and listen
……………………………………………………….® Data from surveys
……………………………………………………….® Peers
……………………………………………………….® Key is listening … anyone can get chewed out
……………………………………………………………………..◊ Bauer Comment – excellent point
…………………………………………□ Show Gratitude
……………………………………………………….® Took em to disney world
…………………………………………□ Don’t complain … work harder
…………………………………………□ Keys
……………………………………………………….® Be good at something … it makes you valuable
……………………………………………………….® Work hard
……………………………………………………….® Find best in everyone
……………………………………………………….® Luck – prep + opp
…………………………..§ Wrap up
…………………………………………□ His final head fake
…………………………………………□ This isn’t about achieving dreams
…………………………………………□ It is living right … as dreams come true in that manner
…………………………………………□ 2nd head fake
…………………………………………□ All he does (like this) is for his kids
** END RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING **

Double Feature: AMZN’s Web Services + Google Android

Didn’t even break a sweat on these two … too short … here was the skinny:

Details

Notable Points

Title/Link: Hall Conversation on AWS Duration: ~8m Speaker: Jeff Bezos CEO AMZN Recommend to Watch? No He really didn’t say much that hadn’t been already heard.

1. Why are they succeeding — AMZN is Selling Their Dog Food AMZN’s AWS offer started 4 years ago when they used a services style to seperate their network and applications team. In doing so, they realized the services they had seperated could be (w/ some tweaks) exposed out to customers as well and sold SaaS style. So if you could start a business based on the streamlined systems of AMZN … but with the option to take it on piece by piece … as in service by service …  we are talking about things like ‘add customer’ … plus the power of full app when needed … wouldn’t you? 2. The Best Is Yet To Come Bezo’s dodged this question simply referring to a new release of S3 allowing persistent storage. However, long term, if you look at their services in private beta you see a much broader picture. Payment solutions, eCommerce stacks, Fulfillment systems. Again, one would assume it would be service based … meaning you don’t buy an application (you get one but that isn’t where it ends). Instead, you also can extend that set of services w/ local customizations.

Interesting … but nothing groundbreaking … having a bit more time …. I wandered over to Google.

Details

Notable Points

Title/Link: Q&A on Google Android @ Google I/O (google’s 1st attempt at a conference) Duration: ~13m Speaker: Google Android Team Recommend to Watch? No Probably better off reading a blog. No notable points for the causal reader.

1. Can an OEM and/or telco create a marketing bundle that isn’t hacked? They were asked this question but skipped it. However there is meat behind this point. Google Android will have a huge development community. Odds of teleco’s being able to protect their holy ground (bandwidth, applications that are allowed on the device) are low. This could be an interesting problem for Android Developers. Telephone providers may have heart burn after people start running Andoid phones that are streaming movies from Netflix for example. Time will tell

Another snoozer.

The biggest lesson from these two … I shouldn’t of strayed from my rule that it has to be a presentation or a high end interview. Adhoc interviews (both of these) are more ‘hit-n-miss’ in revelations or insights. People take more time preparing for conferences. Quality of content is better.

* START OF RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING **

http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/06/01/bezos-talks-web-services/
Also mentioned on Nick Carr
……………..○ 6/2/2008, 6:26 AM
……………..○ Complexity inside … network and apps
…………………………….§ Bulid interface between groups
……………..○ Services solution
……………..○ 4 years ago
……………..○ 2 years to build services
…………………………….§ Simple queue
…………………………….§ Storage
…………………………….§ Ec2
……………..○ People are using those services
……………..○ 6/2/2008, 6:27 AM
……………..○ Why book retailer innovating here
…………………………….§ Retail is a low margin business
…………………………….§ Efficiency is key to their low margin business
…………………………….§ So their culture might of drove it
……………..○ 6/2/2008, 6:28 AM
……………..○ Why do cloud computing … per wall street
…………………………….§ These services drive their businesss
…………………………….§ They are jut doing it in a manner to share
……………..○ 6/2/2008, 6:29 AM
……………..○ What is next
…………………………….§ Persistent storage in ec2
……………………………………………□ Limited beta
…………………………….§ Cloud computing webservices for startups .. Grateful
……………..
…………………………….
……………..
http://techbays.com/2008/05/29/google-io-android-qa/
6/2/2008, 6:30 AM
……………..○ 2nd half this year is release plan
……………..○ http://www.AndroidCommunity.com
……………..○ Buy device or retro fit?
…………………………….§ Software opensource …so anyone can use it
……………..○ High use of touch
…………………………….§ Platform is very generic to UI
…………………………….§ Showed a touch screen
…………………………….§ Could of done w/ trackball
……………..○ Touchscreen demo … detail
…………………………….§ Vendor did it … NDA
…………………………….§ Details … qualcomm processor
…………………………….§ Synaptics touchscreen
…………………………….§ Memory …128mb of ram … 256 on flash
……………..○ 6/2/2008, 6:34 AM
……………..○ What was shown first?
…………………………….§ Notifications
…………………………….§ Desktop launcher (spatial representation of workflow)
…………………………….§ Compass / GEO location
…………………………….§ Unlock via user gestures
…………………………….§ PacMan
……………..○ 6/2/2008, 6:34 AM
……………..○ Google will provide?
…………………………….§ Infrastructure to OEMs
…………………………….§ Developers will range from free to buy
……………..○ 6/2/2008, 6:36 AM
……………..○ Who was represented in team
…………………………….§ A lot of interest … globally
…………………………….§ Collaborative in many countries
……………..○ 6/2/2008, 6:36 AM
……………..○ Why in house till now? When open … what open/closed?
…………………………….§ Usually in the middle
…………………………….§ Now a corporate sponsor is different (usually organic)
…………………………….§ Important to have a open stack in industry in mobile
…………………………….§ When handset can run stack well … they will release
…………………………….§ What liscense?
……………………………………………□ Contribute intellectual
……………………………………………□ Apache liscense … use software … any pieces … contribute modifications back is optional
……………………………………………□ Linux stack is example
…………………………….§ Everything shown to date is open source
……………………………………………□ Exception … google services being used … not long term block … roadmap issue
……………..○ 6/2/2008, 6:39 AM
……………..○ Platform … Envision carriers to allow people to hack their phones? Pose problems for them (mgmt, reliability?) carriers or parents.
…………………………….§ His answer … why not?
…………………………….§ Current platform is 20 years old
……………………………………………□ Use lowercase l instead of 1’s
…………………………….§ Security gets better (in options) in platform
…………………………….§ Bauer comment — Still I think the point is valid. This will be highly hacked. Blocks on bundles getting broken (like AT&T and Usage of IP ) will be hard … just by # of developers

** END RAW SCRIBBLE TAKEN WHILE RUNNING **

End of Month — Breakdown of Posts for May 08

Time to ponder the past …. what was covered in May … and in hindsight what was more timeles?

9-10 – Has become part of my lingo

o Paul Graham (YCombinator): Unleash the Cockroach In You I told a CFO friend of mine today I was modelling my business to be a cockroach. That image has stood the test of time for me. A contextual model of how investement decisions in startups should be made. What would a cockroach do?

o Equals.com (Scoble QIK Interview): Solve Solicitors Calling You I am waiting for this software to come into beta. The concept of having a free service that routes calls to voicemail depending on what your calendar says is too cool (not to mention solving solicitor calls).

o Mylyn (RedMonk): If You Optimize A Disconnect … Do You Connect? I use this product every day now. It has its gaps and bugs … but the vision for allowing you to open tasks and have relevant artifacts (documents, code, etc) open automatically … is a huge efficiency play … especially in technical teams.

7-8 – Powerful At First Blush, Weakening Over Time

o LaunchPad (WebExpo 2.0): Battle of the Bands (Startups) I almost moved this up a tick for the startup around Drupal (Oortel?) and the one offering to simplify moentizing your site (Triggit) but I haven’t been able to apply either. Perhaps in time it will become more mainstream relevant for me and my clients.

o Clay Shirky (Author): The World Is Drunk, On TV This is a very popular post … not suprising considering how referenced Clay’s work is in the blog space. I think he make excellent points on how our generation will have the opportunity to choose something besides TV for their free time.

o Jive Software (Collaboration): Ruth’s Chris vs. Raman Noodles? Good review of Jive’s new collaboration suite features but I can’t remember any of them now. Blurred in the field of competitors I suspect.

o Khris Loux (JS-Kit): Social Commerce … The Next Business Elixir This is a tool that has been around for some time but is notable in that they are trying to create atomic services that can be bought ala-carte and then rolled up to deliver a Web 2.0 site (comments, polls, reviews, etc). I would definitely ponder them if I were doing a new Web 2.0 site.

5 to 6 – I remember it … but only due to amusing events or shocks

o Zuckerberg/Lacy Interview: Why people are still referring to it. This is a great drama where the facilitator of a keynote (Zuckerberg) gets ambushed by the audience. The story will slowly fade in time but be mentioned occasionaly by people as the ‘example’ for what happens when conference speakers don’t track what is being said on twitter back channels.

o Eric Schmidt (IBM Partner Conf): IBM … I Love You Notable in that IBM and Google are partnering to the level they are. What they are partnering on (Cloud Computing) was not discussed in any detail (of note). Just a large swath of concepts.

3 to 4 – Seemed Good, But Now I Can’t Articulate Any Key Points

o Sapphire 2008 Keynote (Pat Lencioni): Five Dysfunctions of a Team I remember thinking this was good stuff at the time … seemed to be a great tool for assessing how to interact w/ people … but now I can’t recall any of the five dysfunctions. Must be a memory dysfunction (or I couldn’t apply it in the days that followed and so it left my head).

1 to 2 – Limited Relevance on 1st Viewing.

o Ron Conway (Full Circle Fund): If I Had a Million Dollars .. Doh .. I Do) All I can remember here is Ron recommending to assess donors for philanthropy the same way you do startups. This is blurry because I don’t have a million dollars to give away I suspect.

On to June.